The U.S. dollar touched a 15-month low and then bounced against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after core retail sales saw strong gains in June, as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next week. The Headline U.S.&nbsp;is Retail sales grew less than expected in June, rising 0.2% during the month. Data for May was also revised higher to show sales gaining 0.5% instead of 0.3% as previously reported. Core sales showed more resilience, however. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.6% in June. Data for May was revised slightly up to show core retail sales increasing 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%. The softer-than-expected headline number suggests that "the Fed is making some progress,” said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. However, “you still did get a fairly strong control group number - that’s going to feed through to GDP and domestic demand. That’s still very much supportive of the fact that the Fed does need to hike rates again later this month,” Rai said. The dollar tumbled after consumer and producer price gains slowed in June, boosting expectations that the U.S. central bank will stop hiking rates after a widely expected 25 basis-point increase at its July 25-26 meeting. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in an additional 32 basis points of tightening this year, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.39% in November. Traders will also be watching inflation releases from regions including the eurozone, Britain and Japan this week for further clues about whether inflation is cooling globally.The dollar index was last up 0.06% on the day at 99.956, after earlier falling to 99.549, the lowest since April 2022. The euro dipped 0.02% to $1.1226 after earlier hitting $1.12760, the highest since February, 2022. European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member Klaas Knot said on Tuesday that the bank will look closely for signs of inflation cooling down in the coming months to avoid taking rate hikes too far. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps next week.The dollar rose 0.03% to 138.71 against the Japanese yen, its lowest since May 17, after falling to 137.245 on Friday. The British pound was little changed at $1.3074, after hitting $1.31440 on Thursday, the highest since April 2022. The Australian dollar fell 0.15% to $0.6807 after minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) July policy meeting released on Tuesday showed no major surprises on the rate outlook.

engin-akyurt-x9maSBSQBfM-unsplash (2) (1).jpg

Explore the impact of robust U.S. retail sales on the dollar as it experiences a temporary dip followed by a significant bounce in the market.

U.S. Dollar's Reaction to Strong Core Retail Sales

Dollar dips, then bounces on strong core U.S. retail sales

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated on Friday that the United States will likely need to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period to control inflation. The IMF's "Article IV" review of U.S. policies revealed that although the U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience in the face of tighter monetary and fiscal policies, inflation has been more persistent than expected.

In its review, the IMF provided a full-year growth forecast of 1.7% for 2023, slightly higher than its April estimate of 1.6%. However, it projected lower output of 1.2% compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year.

The IMF forecasted that the federal funds rate would peak at 5.4% this year, surpassing the nominal 5.25% Fed rate, and then gradually decrease to 4.9% by 2024.

"While core and headline PCE inflation are expected to continue falling during 2023, they will remain materially above the Fed's 2% target throughout 2023 and 2024," the IMF stated.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva emphasized the need for the U.S. government to reduce deficits, particularly by increasing tax revenues.

"The sooner this adjustment is implemented, the better. It is worth noting that the fiscal adjustment can be front-loaded, and by doing so, it would assist the Fed in its efforts to curb inflation," Georgieva said.

Georgieva expressed hope that a last-minute resolution to the U.S. debt ceiling crisis would be reached in Washington, thus avoiding a catastrophic default that would cause further disruptions to the global economy.

"The U.S. Treasury market is the foundation of stability for the global financial system. If you disturb this foundation, the world economy—the ship we all travel on—will encounter choppy and uncharted waters," Georgieva warned, adding that this would occur at a time when many economies were contracting.

She also urged U.S. lawmakers to find an alternative method for managing debt that eliminates the need for debt ceiling brinkmanship through the annual appropriations process.


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated on Friday that the United States will likely need to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period to control inflation. The IMF's "Article IV" review...

IMF's Prescription for Inflation: Stronger Fiscal Policy Needed in the U.S.!

•	*The clash surrounding the expansion of work requirements remains unresolved.*

•	*A GOP negotiator emphasizes the urgent need for a debt-limit deal.*

White House and Republican negotiators have made some progress in narrowing their differences but are still clashing on key issues as the Treasury Department indicates that there is additional time available before a potential default on US debt.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the department expects to be able to make debt payments until June 5 if Congress fails to act on the debt ceiling. This sets a more specific date for a potential default, although it is four days later than her previous warning of trouble as early as June 1.

This extended timeframe, known as the X-date, provides more room for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden's negotiating teams to reach a deal. Although the teams haven't met in person since Wednesday, they have been engaged in late-night discussions on Thursday and regular communication throughout Friday.

President Biden expressed optimism about the prospects for a deal as he left the White House on Friday night for Camp David, stating that he hopes they will know more by the end of the day.

Representative Patrick McHenry, one of the Republican negotiators, emphasized that the June 5 deadline underscores the urgency of reaching a deal. He stated, "We now have a solid date."

The negotiating teams continued to work into the early hours of Saturday morning to finalize the agreement's text.

One of the contentious issues in the negotiations is the inclusion of new work requirements for social programs such as food stamps and Medicaid health coverage, which Republicans support but the White House rejects.

In response to the demands for work requirements, Representative Garret Graves, another GOP negotiator, firmly stated, "Hell no! Hell no! Not a chance. This is not happening."

The White House responded to these demands, with White House spokesperson Andrew Bates stating on Friday night that President Biden and House Democrats stand against such a "cruel and senseless tradeoff."

McCarthy has indicated in recent days that a deal is slowly coming together. While the two sides have narrowed their differences, the agreed-upon details are tentative, and a final agreement has not yet been reached.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the emerging deal, which is still being finalized, would raise the debt limit and cap federal spending for two years. Additionally, defense spending would be allowed to increase by 3% next year in line with Biden's budget request.

The stock market responded positively to reports of an emerging deal, with the benchmark S&P 500 stock index rising 1.3% on Friday. This was accompanied by a decrease in yields on Treasury bills maturing in early June, indicating increased investor confidence in timely debt repayment if a deal is reached.

Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo cautioned that payments to Social Security beneficiaries, veterans, and others would be delayed in the event of a default. However, he expressed some confidence that an agreement will be reached, emphasizing the catastrophic consequences of a default for all Americans.

The proposed deal would also include measures to upgrade the nation's electric grid to accommodate renewable energy, aligning with climate goals. Additionally, it would expedite permits for pipelines and other fossil fuel projects favored by Republicans.

The agreement would involve cutting $10 billion from an $80 billion budget increase for the Internal Revenue Service proposed by Biden in his Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans have expressed concerns about an influx of agents and audits, while Democrats argue that the increase would pay for itself by reducing tax evasion.

The current shape of the deal would be more limited than the initial offer from Republicans, who called for raising the debt ceiling through March of next year in exchange for 10 years of spending caps. House conservatives have already voiced their objections to a smaller deal, with the House Freedom Caucus sending a letter to McCarthy demanding that he remain firm in negotiations.


•	*The clash surrounding the expansion of work requirements remains unresolved.*

•	*A GOP negotiator emphasizes the urgent need for a debt-limit deal.*

White House and Republican negotiators have ma...

Last-Minute Reprieve: US Treasury Provides Additional Time for Debt-Limit Negotiations!

•	*Experts believe the recent surge in inflation increases the likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.*

•	*Some critics argue that this move by the Fed is not the right direction to take, as it further raises the odds of a rate hike.*

•	*Before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, reports on employment and consumer prices are expected to be released.*

Further disappointing inflation news could potentially persuade Federal Reserve policymakers to raise interest rates once again. This would provide support for those who argue that more actions are necessary to restore price stability.

On Friday, figures from the Commerce Department revealed that the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, increased by a faster-than-expected 0.4% in April.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed her belief in a CNBC interview on Friday that based on the inflation data, some tightening of monetary policy will likely be required. She mentioned that all possibilities are on the table for June.

Compared to the previous month, the measure has risen by 4.4% from a year ago, slightly higher than the 4.2% increase seen earlier. When excluding food and energy, the core PCE index, which is another inflation measure, rose by 0.4% compared to the previous month and 4.7% from April 2022.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP, criticized the direction the Federal Reserve is taking, stating that a hike in July is now a possibility depending on resolving debt ceiling issues.

In an effort to control inflation, officials have raised rates by 5 percentage points over the past 14 months, surpassing their 2% target. Following a quarter-point increase earlier this month, the benchmark rate now stands within a target range of 5% to 5.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that policymakers have the flexibility to observe the data and the evolving economic outlook.

Before the Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting on June 13-14, policymakers will receive additional information regarding employment and consumer prices. However, there may be hesitancy to raise rates as long as there is uncertainty surrounding the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations in Congress.

Nevertheless, investors have increased their bets on a rate hike in the upcoming month, with the likelihood rising to over 50% from 18% just a week ago. This shift reflects recent hawkish speeches from Fed officials and indications of economic strength. According to the report released on Friday, consumer spending, adjusted for prices, increased by 0.5%, marking the strongest growth since the beginning of the year. Treasury yields saw a surge following the report.

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Life Insurance Co., commented that the combination of rising inflation and robust consumer spending increases the chances of another rate hike in mid-June.

However, some Fed officials, such as Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic and Philadelphia's Patrick Harker, have emphasized that the impact of credit issues stemming from banking failures has yet to be felt. They also noted that monetary policy operates with a lag, meaning the full consequences of higher rates may not be seen in official data yet.

Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics, stated that it will take more to sway policymakers from pausing in June, but the possibility of another hike thereafter has increased. Tang's firm revised their peak rate forecast from 5.1% to 5.6% on Friday. He added that the stronger the data flow, the more likely it is for the next hike to occur in July rather than September.

"Persistence has its limits, and patience will wear thin if the economy continues to boom and bank stress does not worsen," Tang remarked.

Minutes from the May 2-3 meeting indicated that policymakers were uncertain about the extent of additional tightening needed, weighing the slower progress on inflation against the resilient labor market and the potential credit crunch resulting from recent banking turmoil.

Goldman Sachs economists, in a note on Friday, stated their expectation for the Fed to maintain steady rates in June. However, they acknowledged that the stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending and inflation data, along with the varied views among FOMC participants regarding the appropriate policy path, make the decision a close call.

In a statement on Friday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that the Fed should raise interest rates by a quarter point to bring inflation back to 2%. The IMF also recommended that policymakers emphasize the need for rates to remain high for an extended period to align financial conditions with the intended policy trajectory, while highlighting that policy decisions will depend on incoming data.

Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Corp, noted that the Fed is clearly dependent on data in its decision-making process. In this uncertain environment, he added, every central bank, including the Fed, will be flexible in navigating the path forward.


•	*Experts believe the recent surge in inflation increases the likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.*

•	*Some critics argue that this move by the Fed is not the right direction to take, a...

Inflation Flames Ignite: Fed Contemplates June/July Rate Hike to Tame the Heat!

The personal consumption expenditure index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, experienced a rise of 4.4% in April.

Following four consecutive weeks of decline, the Baker Hughes count of active oil rigs, oil futures witnessed an increase.

ConocoPhillips, a prominent player in the oil industry, has announced its decision to exercise its right to acquire the remaining 50% stake in the Surmont oil-sands project from Total Energies EP Canada. This transaction amounts to $3 billion, with additional contingent payments reaching up to $325 million.

Petróleo Brasleiro, the state-controlled oil company of Brazil, has made a request to the country's environmental agency to overturn their previous decision to block the company from drilling a well in the northern coastal region.



The personal consumption expenditure index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, experienced a rise of 4.4% in April.

Following four consecutive weeks of decline, the Baker ...

Energy Markets Take a Hit: Unraveling the Fallout of Inflation Data on Crude Oil in the Roundup!

Traders have already factored in an additional increase of a quarter-point in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the next two policy meetings. There is a greater than 50% chance that this hike could occur as early as next month.

This change in expectations coincided with the rise in US yields. The two-year rate, which is sensitive to policy changes, increased by 15.7 basis points to reach 4.53%, the highest level since early March. During that time, US bank failures caused market turmoil and led to increased buying of government debt as a safe haven.

Yields at the short end of the curve have been rising for 10 consecutive trading sessions. The recent increase is driven by growing optimism about a potential debt-ceiling agreement and resilient economic data, which could pave the way for further tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The rate on swap contracts linked to the July meeting climbed to 5.37% on Thursday, more than 25 basis points above the current effective fed funds rate. However, it later settled at 5.34% in late New York trading.

Given that the Federal Reserve typically adjusts rates in multiples of 25 basis points, the market sees the possibility of a rate hike occurring either in July or at the Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting in June. The June contract indicates around 14 basis points priced in, suggesting a better than even chance of a hike taking place at that meeting.

Just a few weeks ago, after the central bank's tenth consecutive rate hike, the market was confident that there would be no further increases this year. In fact, there were expectations of up to three rate cuts by the end of the year due to concerns about regional bank failures and indications from some officials suggesting an impending recession.

However, these views have been overshadowed by concerns about persistently high global inflation and tight labor market conditions that have been prevalent earlier this year.

The fear of contagion in the banking system has diminished, and the turmoil surrounding the debt ceiling has not yet triggered significant demand for safe assets, which would push down expected rates.

"The market has been eager to anticipate a pause and even cuts, not necessarily as the most likely outcome, but more due to the risk of an unexpected event that would force the Fed to reverse its course sharply later this year," said Dominic Konstam, head of macro strategy at Mizuho Securities. "So any signs of stability naturally reduce the probability of such a risk materializing."

Federal Reserve officials have recently emphasized their intention to balance the forces of inflation and a strong job market with signs that the ten rate increases over the past 14 months, totaling 5 percentage points, are starting to create financial stress that justifies a pause in June.

Konstam believes that the Fed is unlikely to adopt rate cuts or completely abandon the possibility of further hikes. However, he suggests that currently they are leaning more towards a wait-and-see approach and a pause in June, rather than aggressively moving forward.

Contracts for future periods still indicate the need for rate cuts within the next year, but the anticipated extent of easing has decreased significantly. The swap rate for the December meeting is currently around 4.98%, up from a low of 4.20% earlier this month.

Another indicator suggesting a diminishing expectation of rate cuts in the near term is the narrowing inversion of the yield curve. The yield on the two-year Treasury note is now approximately 0.7 percentage points higher than the 10-year yield, compared to around 0.4 percentage points earlier this month.

The possibility of a renewed demand for Treasuries as a safe haven is also decreasing as Washington seeks to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling before the upcoming US holiday on Monday.

House Speaker McCarthy stated that progress had been made in debt-ceiling talks, with negotiators working past midnight on Wednesday. However, there are still unresolved issues, and efforts are being made to find a solution around the clock.

"The market assumes that there will be a debt limit deal without significant spending cuts," said Priya Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD Securities.

However, Misra added that a debt ceiling deal would likely come with spending cuts, which could negatively impact economic growth, in addition to the effects of rate hikes and tightening lending standards by banks. She suggests that the Federal Reserve may raise rates once more, but that would only increase the amount that the Fed would need to cut next year.


Traders have already factored in an additional increase of a quarter-point in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the next two policy meetings. There is a greater than 50% chance that this hike c...

Fed Traders Set the Stage for an Interest-Rate Hike - What You Need to Know

Another disappointing update on inflation could sway the minds of Federal Reserve policymakers towards another interest rate hike, providing support for those who argue that more action is necessary to restore price stability.

According to figures released by the Commerce Department on Friday, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, experienced a faster-than-anticipated increase of 0.4% in April.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester expressed her view on the matter in an interview with CNBC later that day, stating, "When I analyze the data and observe the inflation numbers, I believe we will have to implement further tightening. All possibilities are being considered for June."

In comparison to the previous month, the measure rose by 4.4% over the past year, slightly surpassing the 4.2% growth. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index, often referred to as the core inflation rate, saw a 0.4% rise from the previous month and a 4.7% increase from April 2022.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP, expressed concern about the Fed's direction, stating, "This is not the right path for the Fed. The outcome in June will depend on resolving the debt ceiling issues, but a rate hike in July is now a possibility."

Over the past 14 months, officials have raised rates by 5 percentage points in an attempt to control inflation, which has exceeded their target of 2%. Following a quarter-point increase earlier this month, the benchmark rate now stands at a target range of 5% to 5.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated a week ago that policymakers could afford to monitor the data and the changing economic outlook.

Before the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 13-14, policymakers will receive additional data on employment and consumer prices. They may also hesitate to raise rates as long as there is uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the debt ceiling negotiations in Congress.

However, investors have started to increase their expectations of a rate hike next month to over 50%, up from 18% just a week ago. This shift in sentiment is driven by recent hawkish speeches by Fed officials, as well as signs of economic strength. The report on Friday revealed that consumer spending, adjusted for prices, experienced a 0.5% increase, marking the strongest growth since the beginning of the year. Following the release of the report, Treasury yields saw a significant rise.


Another disappointing update on inflation could sway the minds of Federal Reserve policymakers towards another interest rate hike, providing support for those who argue that more action is necessary t...

Is the US Economy Boiling Over? Exploring the Impact of Rising Inflation on Fed's Decision-Making

**Key Highlights**

*•	According to market veteran Ed Yardeni, the US economy is showing signs of improvement as consumers persist in utilizing their accumulated savings.*
 
*•	Yardeni's recent note suggests an increased likelihood of a smooth economic slowdown, raising the probability from 60% to 70%.* 

*•	The stock market to sustain its rally, there is one crucial element that is currently missing.*

**Introduction**

The state of the US economy has been a subject of great concern and speculation in recent times. As the nation continues to recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, many wonder about the odds of the US avoiding a deep recession. While positive signs have emerged, there is still a crucial ingredient needed for stocks to rally and sustain the economic upswing.

**Understanding the Odds of a Deep Recession**


A deep recession refers to a severe and prolonged economic downturn characterized by a significant decline in economic activity, high unemployment rates, and a decline in consumer spending. The potential for a deep recession arises when economic indicators point towards a sustained contraction rather than a temporary setback.

**Factors Influencing the Avoidance of a Deep Recession**

**The Role of Fiscal Policy**

Fiscal policy plays a crucial role in stabilizing the economy during challenging times. Governments can implement measures such as increased government spending, tax cuts, and stimulus packages to boost economic activity and prevent a deep recession. By providing financial support to individuals and businesses, fiscal policy can help restore consumer confidence and spur investment.

**Monetary Policy and its Impact on the Economy**

Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the United States, have the power to influence the economy through monetary policy. Adjustments in interest rates, open market operations, and quantitative easing can impact borrowing costs, inflation rates, and investment decisions. By employing suitable monetary measures, central banks can support economic growth and mitigate the risk of a deep recession.

**Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment**

The performance of financial markets and investor sentiment can greatly influence the likelihood of a deep recession. Positive market conditions, characterized by rising stock prices and increased investor confidence, can create a favorable environment for economic expansion. Conversely, negative market conditions and pessimistic sentiment can exacerbate economic downturns and hinder recovery.

**The Importance of Consumer Confidence**

Consumer confidence is a vital component of a healthy economy. When consumers feel optimistic about the future, they are more likely to spend money, leading to increased business activity and economic growth. Maintaining or restoring consumer confidence through effective communication, stable employment conditions, and strong social safety nets can help prevent a deep recession.

**International Trade and Global Economic Conditions**

The US economy is closely linked to global economic conditions and international trade. Disruptions in international trade, such as trade wars or significant geopolitical events, can have a profound impact on the domestic economy. Close monitoring of global economic trends and fostering strong trade relationships are essential to avoid a deep recession and promote sustainable growth.

**Industry-Specific Factors**

Different industries may face unique challenges or opportunities during economic downturns. Understanding the specific factors affecting each industry is crucial for mitigating risks and supporting recovery. Industries heavily reliant on travel, hospitality, and entertainment, for example, may require targeted assistance and innovative strategies to navigate through a deep recession successfully.

**Technology and Innovation as Catalysts for Recovery**

Technological advancements and innovation can act as catalysts for economic recovery. Embracing new technologies, digital transformation, and investing in research and development can create new opportunities, drive productivity gains, and stimulate economic growth. Encouraging innovation and providing resources for technological advancements are vital for avoiding a deep recession.

**The Potential Impact of Policy Changes**

Policy changes, such as regulatory reforms or changes in tax policies, can have a significant impact on the economy. Governments must carefully consider the potential consequences of policy decisions to ensure they support economic stability and growth. Well-calibrated policy changes can help mitigate risks and increase the chances of avoiding a deep recession.

**Analysis of Stock Market Performance**

The performance of the stock market often serves as an indicator of economic health. A robust stock market reflects investor confidence and optimism about future economic prospects. Tracking key stock market indices and analyzing trends can provide valuable insights into the odds of avoiding a deep recession and the potential for stocks to rally.

**The Need for Continued Economic Stimulus**

While the odds of the US avoiding a deep recession are rising, the economy still requires continued economic stimulus to sustain the recovery and drive long-term growth. Implementing targeted fiscal measures, supporting job creation, and investing in infrastructure can fortify the economy against potential setbacks and bolster the chances of stocks rallying.

**Conclusion**

The odds of the US avoiding a deep recession are indeed increasing, thanks to factors such as fiscal policy measures, monetary policy adjustments, and improving market conditions. However, sustained economic recovery and the ability of stocks to rally depend on continued efforts to restore consumer confidence, adapt to industry-specific challenges, embrace technology and innovation, and make informed policy decisions. By addressing these factors and remaining vigilant, the US can navigate through these uncertain times and build a strong foundation for a prosperous future.

**FAQs**

**1. Are there any guarantees that the US will avoid a deep recession?**

*While there are no guarantees, the implementation of appropriate fiscal and monetary policies, along with other mitigating factors, increases the odds of avoiding a deep recession.*

**2. How long will it take for the US economy to recover fully?**

*The timeline for full economic recovery is uncertain and depends on various factors. However, sustained efforts and strategic interventions can expedite the recovery process.*

**3. What role does consumer spending play in avoiding a deep recession?**

*Consumer spending is a significant driver of economic activity. Restoring consumer confidence and encouraging spending can help prevent a deep recession.*

**4. How can innovation contribute to economic recovery?**

*Innovation can create new avenues for growth, enhance productivity, and drive economic recovery. Embracing technological advancements and fostering innovation is crucial in avoiding a deep recession.*

**5. Is the stock market a reliable indicator of economic health?**

*The stock market serves as an indicator of investor sentiment and economic prospects, but it should be considered alongside other economic indicators for a comprehensive analysis.*

**UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS**

According to the seasonally adjusted data, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending May 20 was 229,000. This reflects an increase of 4,000 claims compared to the previous week, which had been revised downward by 17,000 claims. The four-week moving average, which provides a more stable indicator, remained unchanged at 231,750.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate for the week ending May 13 was 1.2 percent, the same as the previous week's rate. The number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits during that week was 1,794,000, showing a decrease of 5,000 from the unrevised level of 1,799,000 in the previous week. The four-week moving average for insured unemployment stood at 1,800,250, indicating a decrease of 12,250 from the unrevised average of 1,812,500 in the previous week.


**Key Highlights**

*•	According to market veteran Ed Yardeni, the US economy is showing signs of improvement as consumers persist in utilizing their accumulated savings.*
 
*•	Yardeni's recent note s...

"Navigating the US Economy: Rising Odds of Avoiding a Deep Recession and the Missing Ingredient for Stock Market Rally"

According to the latest report from the US Labor Department, the data for the week ending on May 20th reveals a slight uptick in initial unemployment claims. The number of first-time claims has risen by 4,000, reaching a total of 229,000. Although this increase is considered small, it deviates from the predictions made by economists surveyed by Reuters, who had anticipated a higher number of 245,000.

Interestingly, there has been a significant downward revision in the data for the previous two weeks. This revision is primarily attributed to the identification and removal of fraudulent applications originating from Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Department of Unemployment Assistance had issued a warning in early May, alerting authorities to an upsurge in fraudulent claim activities. These activities involved individuals attempting to gain unauthorized access to current UI accounts and using stolen personal data to fraudulently obtain unemployment benefits.

On a positive note, the data also reveals a drop in long-term claims. Over 48,000 continuing UI claims have been reduced, suggesting another month of strong employment gains and a decrease in the jobless rate. The employment data for May, which will provide further insights into job growth, is scheduled to be released on Friday, June 2nd.

The Federal Reserve will be closely monitoring the incoming economic data as they assess the need for another interest rate hike. Their next meeting, scheduled for June 13th and 14th, will be crucial in determining whether such a hike should be implemented.

Notably, the data for the previous two weeks has been revised downward significantly. This adjustment was made to account for fraudulent applications originating from Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Department of Unemployment Assistance had raised concerns in early May regarding a surge in fraudulent activities aimed at gaining unauthorized access to current UI accounts. Moreover, individuals were also found to be using stolen personal information to illicitly obtain unemployment benefits.

In addition to this, the decrease of over 48,000 continuing UI claims indicates a robust labor market in the United States. It suggests the likelihood of another month marked by substantial employment gains and a reduced jobless rate. The forthcoming employment data for May is set to be released on Friday, June 2nd. The Federal Reserve will closely monitor this incoming economic data as they assess whether another increase in interest rates should be implemented during their upcoming meeting on June 13th and 14th.



According to the latest report from the US Labor Department, the data for the week ending on May 20th reveals a slight uptick in initial unemployment claims. The number of first-time claims has risen ...

Initial unemployment claims experience a slight increase, while long-term claims show a decline

With the United States using its currency as a tool for sanctions, many countries have been exploring the possibility of an alternative currency. This article examines whether there is a need for an alternative currency to the US dollar.

**Introduction: -**

The US dollar has been the world's dominant reserve currency for decades, but many countries are starting to question its suitability as a global currency. One of the reasons is the US government's use of the dollar as a tool for sanctions. When the United States imposes economic sanctions on a country, it often restricts that country's access to US dollars, effectively cutting off its access to international trade. This has led some countries to explore alternative currencies that are less susceptible to US pressure.

In this article, we will examine whether there is a need for an alternative currency to the US dollar, given that it has been used as a tool for sanctions in many countries by the USA. We will explore the advantages and disadvantages of alternative currencies and whether they are a viable option for countries that have been targeted by US sanctions.

**The US Dollar as a Tool for Sanctions:**

The United States has a long history of using its currency as a tool for sanctions. When the US imposes economic sanctions on a country, it often restricts that country's access to US dollars, which can make it difficult for that country to engage in international trade. For example, Iran has been subject to US sanctions since 1979, which have severely restricted its access to US dollars. In recent years, the US has also imposed sanctions on countries such as Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela, among others.

**The Advantages of Alternative Currencies:**

One of the main advantages of alternative currencies is that they can provide countries with greater independence and autonomy. If a country's access to the US dollar is restricted due to sanctions or other factors, an alternative currency can allow it to continue to engage in international trade. This can help to mitigate the economic impact of sanctions and other forms of pressure from the United States.

Another advantage of alternative currencies is that they can promote greater financial stability. The US dollar's dominance as a reserve currency has contributed to global financial instability, as the United States has used its position to pursue policies that have had negative effects on other countries. Alternative currencies can help to reduce the United States' ability to dictate global economic policy, thereby promoting greater financial stability.

**The Disadvantages of Alternative Currencies:**

One of the main disadvantages of alternative currencies is that they can be difficult to establish and maintain. Creating a new currency requires significant resources and infrastructure, and it can take years or even decades to establish a currency that is widely accepted in the international community. Additionally, alternative currencies may be subject to the same geopolitical pressures as the US dollar, as countries such as China and Russia seek to promote their own currencies as alternatives to the US dollar.

**Alternatives to the US Dollar:**

Several countries and organizations have been exploring alternatives to the US dollar in recent years. One of the most notable is China, which has been promoting its currency, the renminbi, as an alternative to the US dollar. Other countries, such as Russia, have also been exploring alternatives to the US dollar, such as the use of gold as a reserve currency. Additionally, some organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund, have proposed the use of a new global currency known as the Special Drawing Right.


With the United States using its currency as a tool for sanctions, many countries have been exploring the possibility of an alternative currency. This article examines whether there is a need for an a...

Explore the need for alternative currencies to the US Dollar

There are several strategies that traders use to trade crude oil, and the best strategy will depend on the trader's individual goals, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon.

One popular strategy is to use technical analysis to identify trends and patterns in the price of crude oil. This can involve using charts and indicators to analyze past price movements and make predictions about future price movements.

Another strategy is to use fundamental analysis to evaluate the underlying factors that influence the supply and demand for crude oil, such as economic growth, geopolitical events, and changes in production and inventory levels.

Another strategy is to trade based on news and events, such as changes in production from major oil-producing countries or natural disasters that can disrupt supply.

A strategy can also be a combination of the above, for example, a trader may combine technical analysis with a focus on fundamentals like OPEC meeting.

It's important to remember that crude oil prices can be highly volatile and subject to sudden changes, so any strategy should be paired with a robust risk management plan. It's also important to have a good understanding of the market and to continuously monitor the market conditions.

It is recommended to always paper trade and test a strategy before using it with real money and to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

There are several strategies that traders use to trade crude oil, and the best strategy will depend on the trader's individual goals, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon.

One popular strategy...

What is the best strategy to trade crude oil ?

Do you want to learn about Forex trading market but don't have confidence due to lack of knowledge and the risk of loosing real money is high? Worry not!
Forex brokers give an option called Demo Trading where you get the actual feel of trading but with virtual money! Isn't it an excellent option? 

A demo account is a trading account just like a real trading account, with real-life prices, indicators and all the available tools that a live account has for you to learn all the tricks of the trade but without risking your real money.

Once you open a demo account, you will receive virtual money. The purpose of the demo account is to help you demo-trade, practice your trading skills, get familiar with the broker’s trading platform and get a first-time experience of the dynamic and volatile world of financial markets. It helps you remain stress-free as you aren't using real money to trade. So even if you loose money in the transactions, you will get to experience the emotions but you wouldn't have lost real money, which is a relief. 

When you wish to learn any new skill for eg painting or swimming or driving, just reading about it is not enough. Once you read some basic information, practicing it in real helps grasp the learning. this cycle of reading and applying practical knowledge will eventually build the muscle memory and confidence. Similarly, just reading about Forex market will not give us all the knowledge and make us market ready. Applying that knowledge is equally important and thats where the Demo Trading Account comes in handy. It gives a risk-free platform to apply all that you are learning, a safe play ground to test and experiment before you enter the real market with real money. 
Till you get completely confident about starting a live account, use a Forex broker that provides an unlimited Forex demo account. You can use the demo account with no expiry. Use it till you develop your own trading strategy and trading style. 

Finally when you switch to live trading account, it may take some time to get comfortable. Making profit and loses on demo account will help you feel the emotion to an extent but trading on live account is still a different ball game. While trading on demo account you may make rational decisions as real money is not at stake, but when you switch to live account, maintaining the same cool head will help you make the right decisions. 

Increasing tolerance to loss is another skill one needs to develop to trade in live account. Many a times investors end up making wrong decisions or selling everything when they incur loss. 

All in all, option of demo trading account, whether limited or unlimited, is a great one provided to learn about this domain and develop knowledge base. 

Do you want to learn about Forex trading market but don't have confidence due to lack of knowledge and the risk of loosing real money is high? Worry not!
Forex brokers give an option called Demo Tradi...

Demo Trading vs Live Trading

There are two ways of investing in Mutual Funds.
a. SIP b. Lumpsum

SIP as we saw in earlier blog is a systematic approach to investing money. It is for those who have salaried income and those who don't wish to keep a track of the market behaviour. They have small amounts of money to invest at regular intervals for a long term duration. 

Lumpsum on the other hand is for those who get a huge chunk of money in one shot via their business. Let us understand this method more in this write up.

So, Lumpsum is basically a method of Mutual Fund investment where investment id made in one go rather than small amounts like in SIP.

Key features of Lumpsum invest includes :

1. Works best during Bull Market. 
2. Works best for long term investment.
3. You hold the control over investments rather than a bank deciding your investments.
4. Better alternative for a large amount sitting idle in savings account. 

Every investments comes with its own set of risks. One who doesn't get jittery seeing downward market trend will receive benefit in long run from Lumpsum Investment. Study the varied options available and invest wisely as per your requirements. 

After a thorough comparative study of SIP vs. Lumpsum, you can choose the best method for yourself.

![Description](https://res.cloudinary.com/forex-overflow/image/upload/v1664879300/fx-overflow-assets/mnrgiwzw3wteb9ti00g6.png)

Source : BankBazaar

Have a look at Large cap Schemes, Medium Cap Schemes, Multi-cap Schemes, Equity-linked savings schemes for SIP for the comparative study. 

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

ForexOverFlow is an international team of Forex analysts and traders. Our goal is to share our knowledge of the Forex World. Forex is as large as the wild Amazon Jungle. Common people can benefit from our website, which we update daily in terms of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. We publish strategies that are simple and yet lucrative for manual traders. We are able to offer Mql4 or Mql5 platform development services. Meta trader 4 or 5 based indicators and expert advisors are available for users. Our developers' charges are fair and realistic.ForexOverFlow is here to bring a revolution to the educational forex industry which will make the masses well informed and well educated by just dedicating a few minutes a day.

There are two ways of investing in Mutual Funds.
a. SIP b. Lumpsum

SIP as we saw in earlier blog is a systematic approach to investing money. It is for those who have salaried income and those who do...

Lumpsum Investment - What is it and what are its Benefits?

Nasdaq Stock Market earlier known as NASDAQ, which was an acronym of National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations, was founded on February 8th, 1971. Back then it provided automated information about stocks prices. Investors used this information to trade stocks in other exchanges. Eventually Nasdaq became the first electronic stock market providing trading of those stocks which were traded in places other than formal stock exchanges. 

Today, in order to list their shares on Nasdaq's stock exchange, companies have to meet very specific financial requirement. They need to maintain a stock price of at least $1 and the value of outstanding stocks must total at least $1.1 million. Smaller businesses who cannot to meet the financial requirements, can benefit using NASDAQ Small Caps Market. 
More than 3,300 companies trade on Nasdaq making it the second largest stock exchange in terms of securities value and largest electronic stock market. 
Although Nasdaq is known for its high-tech stocks, it also trades shares in varied companies viz capital goods, consumer durables and nondurables, energy, finance, healthcare, public utilities, technology and transportation. 

Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that includes almost all the stocks listed on Nasdaq Stock Exchange. It's one of the three most followed indexes in the US. The other two are Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500. It includes high percentage of companies from Information technology sector. 
The Nasdaq Composite is a  market value weighted index. Its price is calculated by taking the sum of the products of closing price and index share of all of the securities in the index. The sum is then divided by a divisor which reduces the order of magnitude of the result. 

Basically, market-value-weighted index is a stock market index whose components are weighted according to the total market value of their outstanding shares. Every day an individual stock's price changes and thereby changes a stock index's value. The impact that individual stock's price change has on the index is proportional to the company's overall market value (the share price multiplied by the number of outstanding shares), in a capitalization-weighted index. In other types of indices, different ratios are used. (source : Wikipedia)

The Nasdaq-100 is one of the world's preeminent large-cap growth indexes. The companies in the Nasdaq-100 include 100-plus of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalisation. The Nasdaq-100 is home to many high-performing companies from popular sectors like technology, healthcare, consumer goods & services, and industrials.


__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
ForexOverFlow is an international team of Forex analysts and traders. Our goal is to share our knowledge of the Forex World. Forex is as large as the wild Amazon Jungle. Common people can benefit from our website, which we update daily in terms of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. We publish strategies that are simple and yet lucrative for manual traders. We are able to offer Mql4 or Mql5 platform development services. Meta trader 4 or 5 based indicators and expert advisors are available for users. Our developers' charges are fair and realistic.ForexOverFlow is here to bring a revolution to the educational forex industry which will make the masses well informed and well educated by just dedicating a few minutes a day.

Nasdaq Stock Market earlier known as NASDAQ, which was an acronym of National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations, was founded on February 8th, 1971. Back then it provided automated...

Nasdaq Stock Market, Nasdaq Composite Index, Nasdaq 100

undefined![Description](https://res.cloudinary.com/forex-overflow/image/upload/v1664186153/fx-overflow-assets/s275ebj1nsmsdpxkr68d.png)

As on 26/09/2022 USD-INDEX has given out a strong opening. Since the day beginning it has surpassed all resistance levels and has only 20% room to break third resistance level which standard is 115.269. The dollar has been trending its positions across the world. Seeing the economic conditions in Europe and the war triggers from Russia and Ukraine has led to American Dollar uprising undefended.

Tehchnical Analysis :-  RSI on daily basis stands very strong at 77 level based on which we can clearly confirm that shorting dollar index today may trigger losses its preferred that we choose the process of buying on dips. Whenever RSI comes down nearby 50 levels  and price is above 20 ema once may choose to enter long. 


undefined![Description](https://res.cloudinary.com/forex-overflow/image/upload/v1664186153/fx-overflow-assets/s275ebj1nsmsdpxkr68d.png)

As on 26/09/2022 USD-INDEX has given out a strong opening. Sinc...

Technical Analysis 26-09-2022

Financial independence is the concept of not needing to rely on a salary from a job to finance your lifestyle. It means that you are able to live comfortably without the need for a steady income.

There are many ways you can achieve financial independence, but the most common way is through passive income. Passive income is money earned from an investment that requires little or no work on your part after it has been set up. The most common type of passive income comes from rental properties, which require very little work once they are rented out and the tenant pays their rent automatically each month.

The following is a non-exhaustive list of sources of passive income that potentially yield financial independence.

Bank fixed deposits and monthly income schemes
Business ownership (if the business does not require active operation)
Dividends from stocks, bonds and income trusts
Interest earned from deposit accounts, money market accounts or loans
Life annuity
Notes, including stocks and bonds
Oil leases
Patent licensing
Pensions
Rental property
Royalty from creative works, e.g. photographs, books, patents, music, etc.
Trust deed (real estate)
(Source : Wikipedia)

Another approach towards Financial Independence is via saving and investing. You can save money by cutting down on expenses, like eating out and shopping. You can also invest money, which means you put it in stocks or bonds or other places where it will grow over time.

Simple Living contributes a lot towards gaining Financial Independence over a period of time. 

Here are some books which are good guides to work in this direction :


1.‘The Little Book of Common Sense Investing’ by John C. Bogle

2. ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ by Burton Malkiel
3. ‘The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need’ by Andrew Tobias
4. ‘I Will Teach You to Be Rich’ by Ramit Sethi
5. ‘The 4-Hour Workweek’ by Tim Ferriss
6. Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert T Kiyosaki
7. Think and Grow Rich by Napolean Hill


Grow Money Not Worry!



__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

ForexOverFlow is an international team of Forex analysts and traders. Our goal is to share our knowledge of the Forex World. Forex is as large as the wild Amazon Jungle. Common people can benefit from our website, which we update daily in terms of technical analysis and fundamental analysis. We publish strategies that are simple and yet lucrative for manual traders. We are able to offer Mql4 or Mql5 platform development services. Meta trader 4 or 5 based indicators and expert advisors are available for users. Our developers' charges are fair and realistic.ForexOverFlow is here to bring a revolution to the educational forex industry which will make the masses well informed and well educated by just dedicating a few minutes a day.

Financial independence is the concept of not needing to rely on a salary from a job to finance your lifestyle. It means that you are able to live comfortably without the need for a steady income.

The...

Newest & Recent

Find the lastest update

Popular of the day

Most watched posts

Forex Glossary

A to Z Forex abbreviations

Daily Analysis

Industry Experts posts

Pinned Tags

#trade360

#finexo

#fxtrading.com

#sky alliance markets

#amega

#ospreyfx

#fxglory

#fibo group

#ig global

#bdswiss

#lcg

#fxgrow

#legacyfx

#superforex

#simplefx

#rakuten securities

#ifc markets

#triumphfx

#world forex

#amana capital

usa

16 articles published related to#usa

Dollar dips, then bounces on strong core U.S. retail sales

IMF's Prescription for Inflation: Stronger Fiscal Policy Nee...

Last-Minute Reprieve: US Treasury Provides Additional Time f...

Inflation Flames Ignite: Fed Contemplates June/July Rate Hik...

Energy Markets Take a Hit: Unraveling the Fallout of Inflati...

Fed Traders Set the Stage for an Interest-Rate Hike - What Y...

Is the US Economy Boiling Over? Exploring the Impact of Risi...

"Navigating the US Economy: Rising Odds of Avoiding a Deep R...

Initial unemployment claims experience a slight increase, wh...