Published on Apr 27, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 27-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(Netherlands) King's Birthday	None	EUR
02:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Business Confidence	Medium	NZD
02:30	(Australia) Export Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Import Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY	Low	CNY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Finland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Services Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Economic Sentiment	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro area) Selling Price Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 5-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
12:00	(Spain) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
12:00	(Canada) CFIB Business Barometer	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Sales QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Price Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoY	Low	CAD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales YoY	Medium	USD
15:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:15	(Euro Area) ECB Panetta Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(United States) 7-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - As Thursday's European session approaches, WTI crude oil is mildly bid near $74.45, attempting to recover from a monthly low of $74.00. The energy benchmark had been experiencing a two-day downtrend and recently consolidated after incurring its largest daily loss in 1.5 months.

The recent bounce-back of the black gold may be attributed to the weak US Dollar and a hint of optimism in the market. Nonetheless, concerns regarding the upcoming release of the US first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data are pressuring oil buyers.

The energy market is keeping a watchful eye on the US GDP data, which is expected to have a significant impact on oil prices. Any positive surprise in the GDP data could further strengthen the US Dollar and put downward pressure on oil prices.

In contrast, a disappointing GDP report could weaken the US Dollar and boost oil prices. Despite the cautious optimism in the market, the investors are treading cautiously until the GDP report is released.

Buy Scenario: - As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) goes oversold once again, the next support level for WTI crude oil is at 72.70. In order for a sustained recovery to materialise, the bulls must clear the 77.10 resistance level and reach the top of the brief rally at 79.00. If they are unable to do so, the commodity could be vulnerable to a new round of sell-off.

In conclusion, WTI crude oil is facing significant challenges, and investors are closely monitoring the market to determine the next direction for oil prices. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - WTI crude oil prices have taken a hit due to concerns about a potential recession, which have outweighed the constraints on supply. Looking at the daily chart, it is clear that the current correction has more than filled the gap from early April, but has yet to stabilise. The recent surge in April has not been able to decisively break below the 75.00 support level, indicating that weakness is still present in the market. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -