Published on Apr 25, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 25-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Australia) ANZAC Day	None	AUD
01:00	(Italy) Liberation Day	None	EUR
01:00	(New Zealand) ANZAC Day	None	NZD
01:00	(Portugal) Liberty Day	None	EUR
03:45	(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	USD
03:45	(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
08:00	(Spain) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Member Broadbent	Low	GBP
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends Orders	Medium	GBP
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Business Optimism Index	Medium	GBP
13:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
13:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index MoM	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) CB Consumer Confidence	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4.5 to 7 yrs	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 2-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Imports	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Exports	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Balance of Trade	Medium	NZD

Today's Scenario: - WTI crude oil is hovering around the $78.70 mark, remaining stable after a two-day upward trend. During early trading on Tuesday, the market is looking for new indicators, causing the black gold to hover around the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Despite the energy benchmark fluctuating around the short-term EMA, its ability to remain above the $77.70 level of the 200-EMA, coupled with bullish MACD signals, provides hope to oil buyers.

Investors are closely monitoring the situation and are awaiting any signs of a shift in market conditions that could influence the price of crude oil.

Buy Scenario: - The WTI bulls are receiving further support as the quote has successfully broken the previous resistance line from April 14, which has now become an immediate support level at around $78.20.

Moreover, the confirmation of a "Double bottom" bullish chart pattern is strengthening the bullish bias around WTI crude oil, as the sustained break of the $78.30 trigger-point is validating this formation.

With these positive indicators, WTI crude oil buyers are poised to aim for the $80.00 round figure. However, the previous support line from late March, currently around $81.05, may pose a challenge to the WTI buyers. A break of this level could quickly propel the quote towards the monthly high of $83.40. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - On the other hand, WTI crude oil sellers would need validation from the double bottoms surrounding $76.68. Following that, a downward trajectory towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its March-April upside, at approximately $73.85 and $71.60 respectively, cannot be ruled out. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -