Published on May 22, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 22-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Machinery Orders YoY	Medium	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Machinery Orders MoM	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Canada) Victoria Day	None	CAD
01:00	(Montenegro) Independence Day	None	EUR
02:15	(China) Loan Prime Rate 1Y	Medium	CNY
02:15	(China) Loan Prime Rate 5Y	Medium	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
07:30	(Switzerland) Industrial Production YoY	Medium	CHF
08:00	(Slovakia) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
13:00	(Kosovo) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:50	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
15:50	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
20:00	(El Salvador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - In the Asian session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX are trading in a back-and-forth manner below the $72.00 level. The oil price is expected to remain range-bound as investors are awaiting the outcome of the US debt-ceiling negotiations.

US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are scheduled to continue negotiations on Monday. Earlier, President Biden criticized the Republicans' demands for an 8% cut in spending as unacceptable.

In addition, Reuters reported that the G7, the European Union, and Australia have agreed to impose a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian seaborne crude oil. They have also set an upper limit on the price of Russian oil products to restrict Moscow's revenues in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

Buy Scenario: - On the Buying side of WTI crude oil, a strong recovery above the high on May 10 at $73.80 would open the door for further upside towards the high on May 2 at $76.06. Breaking above that level would expose the oil price to the high on April 26 around $78.00. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - The oil price is currently forming a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern, indicating a contraction in volatility. The trendlines of the pattern are drawn from the low on May 15 at $69.39 and the high on May 10 at $73.81. Previously, the oil price rebounded strongly after forming a Double Bottom chart pattern around the low on March 20 at $64.38.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $72.00 is closely aligned with the oil price, suggesting a lack of strong momentum.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating that investors are awaiting a catalyst for a decisive move.

If the oil price breaks below the low on May 15 at $69.39, it would strengthen the downside bias and potentially lead to a decline towards the low on May 4 at $67.47. Further downside could target the 17-month low at $64.31. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -