Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 20-04-2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 20-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis
WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events: -
00:50(Japan) Foreign Bond InvestmentLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Stock Investment by ForeignersLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Imports YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Exports YoYMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Balance of TradeHighJPY
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 1YMediumCNY
02:15(China) Loan Prime Rate 5YMediumCNY
04:35(Japan) 20-Year JGB AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoMLowJPY
05:30(Netherlands) Unemployment RateMediumEUR
05:30(Netherlands) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI YoYLowEUR
06:00(Estonia) PPI MoMLowEUR
07:00(Germany) PPI YoYLowEUR
07:00(Germany) PPI MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Business Climate IndicatorLowEUR
07:45(France) Business ConfidenceMediumEUR
09:00(Greece) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Spain) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
09:40(Spain) 7-Year Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
10:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
10:00(Euro Area) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
10:00(Belgium) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
10:00(France) 5-Year BTAN AuctionLowEUR
10:00(France) 3-Year BTAN AuctionLowEUR
11:00(France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI MoMLowEUR
12:30(Euro Area) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting AccountsMediumEUR
13:30(United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Business ConditionsLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed EmploymentLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed CAPEX IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Prices PaidLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed New OrdersLowUSD
13:30(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageHighUSD
13:30(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
15:00(Euro Area) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
15:00(United States) Existing Home Sales MoMHighUSD
15:00(United States) Existing Home SalesHighUSD
15:00(United States) CB Leading Index MoMLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 8-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 4-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(United States) Fed Waller SpeechMediumUSD
18:00(United States) 5-Year TIPS AuctionLowUSD
20:00(United States) Fed Bowman SpeechMediumUSD
21:15(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel SpeechLowEUR

Today's Scenario: - WTI crude oil has reached a two-week low at around $78.30, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline heading into Thursday's European session. The energy benchmark is approaching an upward-sloping support line from March 20 and prodding the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Despite this, the Oil bears remain hopeful due to the price's reversal from $83.40 and a downward-sloping of the previous resistance line from early December 2022. The impending bear cross on the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) and the retreat of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line placed at 14 further strengthen the downside bias.

Buy Scenario: - the WTI crude oil price rose to $81.10 following a sluggish performance on Tuesday. The previous day's Doji candlestick suggests a reversal of the previous trend, indicating a reversal of the previous week's pullback from multi-day-old horizontal resistance.
In addition to the Doji candlestick, the Oil buyers are hopeful due to the U-turn from the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $80.60 by the press time, and a firmer but not overbought RSI (14) line.
However, the WTI bulls face a challenge from the 200-day EMA at around $81.70, along with the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals.
A horizontal area that includes the tops marked since December 2022, at around $83.30-40, becomes crucial to watch for the Oil buyers, as a break could push back the bearish bias of the commodity. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - the immediate upside of the oil price is limited by the $80.00 round figure. Beyond that, a downward-sloping resistance line from last December, near $81.50, could pose a challenge to buyers.
If WTI crude oil manages to surpass this resistance, then a horizontal area surrounding $83.30-40 will be the key to the buyer's conviction. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 77.95-R1 80.64
S2 76.89-R2 82.27
S3 75.26-R3 83.33


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