Published on Jun 19, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 19-06-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Key Points: -

· WTI crude oil is experiencing a decline, marking the first loss in three days as it renews its intraday low.

· The price of oil is pulling back from a resistance line that has been in place for about two weeks, which is accompanied by an RSI that is nearing the overbought territory.

· Despite the pullback, the bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator provide some hope for energy buyers.

Today's Scenario: -

According to CME Group's preliminary data on crude oil futures, traders reduced their open interest positions for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, with a decrease of over 22,000 contracts. Volume also experienced a decline for the fourth straight session, this time by approximately 3,700 contracts.

Diagram of WTI Crude Oil (US Oil): -

Economic Events: -

Date Event Impact Currency

04:00 (New Zealand) Services NZ PSI Low NZD

04:00 (New Zealand) Composite NZ PCI Low NZD

05:30 (United States) Juneteenth None USD

09:05 (Japan) 52-Week Bill Auction Low JPY

13:30 (Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment Medium AUD

13:30 (Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment Medium CHF

13:30 (Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment Medium JPY

13:30 (European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment Medium EUR

13:30 (United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment Medium GBP

13:30 (Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment Medium CAD

13:30 (New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment Medium NZD

13:30 (Euro Area) ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts Low EUR

15:00 (Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction Low EUR

16:00 (Portugal) Current Account Low EUR

16:30 (Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech Low EUR

17:10 (Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech Low EUR

18:00 (Canada) PPI YoY Low CAD

18:00 (Canada) PPI MoM Low CAD

18:00 (Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoY Low CAD

18:00 (Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoM Low CAD

18:30 (France) 3-Month BTF Auction Low EUR

18:30 (France) 12-Month BTF Auction Low EUR

18:30 (France) 6-Month BTF Auction Low EUR

19:30 (United States) NAHB Housing Market Index Medium USD

23:30 (Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech High EUR

Buy Scenario: -

On the Buying side, for a recovery in oil prices to be validated, a breakthrough above the aforementioned resistance line around $72.00 is needed. If successful, this could propel the energy bulls towards multiple hurdles marked near $73.50.

However, it should be noted that the WTI crude oil's recovery prospects remain uncertain unless the price remains below the late May swing high near $74.70. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: -

If WTI crude oil continues to decline below $69.50, attention will turn to a one-week-old ascending support line around $69.30, followed by a horizontal area between $67.20 and $67.00, which has seen multiple lows since early May. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.