Published on Apr 19, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 19-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
04:35	(Japan) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production MoM	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Industrial Production YoY	Low	JPY
05:30	(Japan) Capacity Utilization MoM	Low	JPY
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Current Account s.a	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Cyprus) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 10-Year Bund Auction	Medium	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:10	(European Union) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:30	(United Kingdom) 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:35	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) PPI MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoM	Low	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 5-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Fed Beige Book	Low	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Inflation Rate QoQ	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) CPI	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price rose to $83.08bbls on Tuesday, following a low of $81.80bbls. However, early on Wednesday in Asia, the price had fallen to $80.86bbls, a decrease of approximately 2% from the previous day.

Despite the decline, the oil price rallied overnight due to positive news from China, which reported a 4.5% increase in its first-quarter Gross Domestic Product. Additionally, a weaker US dollar contributed to the bullish trend, as it experienced a bearish correction.

In summary, the WTI crude oil price rose to $83.08bbls on Tuesday but fell to $80.86bbls early on Wednesday in Asia, reflecting a decrease of approximately 2%. The positive news from China's first-quarter GDP and a weaker US dollar contributed to the oil price rally overnight.

Buy Scenario: - the WTI crude oil price rose to $81.10 following a sluggish performance on Tuesday. The previous day's Doji candlestick suggests a reversal of the previous trend, indicating a reversal of the previous week's pullback from multi-day-old horizontal resistance.

In addition to the Doji candlestick, the Oil buyers are hopeful due to the U-turn from the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $80.60 by the press time, and a firmer but not overbought RSI (14) line.

However, the WTI bulls face a challenge from the 200-day EMA at around $81.70, along with the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals.

A horizontal area that includes the tops marked since December 2022, at around $83.30-40, becomes crucial to watch for the Oil buyers, as a break could push back the bearish bias of the commodity. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - Alternatively, a downside break of the 10-day EMA level of around $80.60 needs validation from the $80.00 psychological magnet, as well as the previous weekly low of around $79.35, to convince the Oil bears.

Even so, multiple stops around $77.50 may challenge the WTI crude oil bears afterward.

In the mean time, the WTI crude oil price rose to $81.10 early on Wednesday, following a sluggish performance on Tuesday. The Doji candlestick and the U-turn from the 10-day EMA provide hope for Oil buyers, but the WTI bulls face challenges from the 200-day EMA and the receding bullish bias of the MACD signals. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -