Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 18-05-2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 18-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis
WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:50(Japan) Foreign Bond InvestmentLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Stock Investment by ForeignersLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Imports YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Exports YoYMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Balance of TradeHighJPY
01:00(Austria) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Belgium) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Euro Area) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Finland) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(France) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Germany) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Luxembourg) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Netherlands) Ascension DayNoneEUR
01:00(Switzerland) Ascension DayNoneCHF
02:30(Australia) Part Time Employment ChgMediumAUD
02:30(Australia) Participation RateLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Full Time Employment ChgMediumAUD
02:30(Australia) Unemployment RateHighAUD
02:30(Australia) Employment ChangeHighAUD
04:00(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoYLowUSD
04:00(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoMLowUSD
04:35(Japan) 52-Week Bill AuctionLowJPY
07:30(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
09:00(Spain) Balance of TradeMediumEUR
09:40(Spain) Obligacion AuctionLowEUR
09:40(Spain) 5-Year Bonos AuctionLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde SpeechMediumEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI MoMLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) PPI YoYLowEUR
11:00(Slovakia) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Private Consumption YoYLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Economic Activity YoYLowEUR
13:30(United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Business ConditionsLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed CAPEX IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed EmploymentLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed New OrdersLowUSD
13:30(United States) Philly Fed Prices PaidLowUSD
13:30(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageHighUSD
13:30(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsHighUSD
13:30(Canada) New Housing Price Index YoYMediumCAD
13:30(Canada) New Housing Price Index MoMMediumCAD
14:05(United States) Fed Jefferson SpeechMediumUSD
14:30(United States) Fed Barr TestimonyMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Existing Home Sales MoMHighUSD
15:00(United States) Existing Home SalesHighUSD
15:00(United States) CB Leading Index MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) Fed Logan SpeechMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 8-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 4-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
18:00(United States) 10-Year TIPS AuctionLowUSD
20:00(El Salvador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
23:45(New Zealand) Balance of TradeMediumNZD
23:45(New Zealand) ExportsLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) ImportsLowNZD
Today's Scenario: - WTI crude oil has declined to a new intraday low near $72.50 after experiencing its largest daily increase in two weeks and reaching three-week highs in early Thursday trading in Europe.
The retreat in the RSI (14) line and the drop back to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) around $72.35 indicate a pullback. However, the presence of bullish signals from the MACD and the stability of the price above the previous resistance line from April 28, now acting as immediate support near $71.60, pose a challenge for the bears.
Buy Scenario: - On the upside, a recovery in WTI would require surpassing the recent peak around $73.30 to attract oil buyers.
Even in a bullish scenario, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-May decline near $73.85 cannot be ruled out.
However, the convergence of the 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $76.20-30 presents a strong resistance zone for oil buyers. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.
Selling Scenario: - If the bearish momentum continues, there is a possibility of a rapid decline towards the two-week ascending support line around $70.30, and potentially towards the $70.00 round figure.
In the event that WTI crude oil remains bearish below $70.00, there is a chance of a slump towards the double bottoms around $64.40-30. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 70.76-R1 74.00
S2 68.79-R2 75.27
S3 67.52-R3 77.24

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