Published on Apr 18, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 18-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Tuesday	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
03:00	(China) Industrial Capacity Utilization	Low	CNY
03:00	(China) Retail Sales YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Industrial Production YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
03:00	(China) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	CNY
03:00	(China) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Medium	CNY
03:00	(China) Unemployment Rate	High	CNY
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Employment Change	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) HMRC Payrolls Change	Low	GBP
09:00	(Italy) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) New Motor Vehicle Sales	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Housing Starts MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
14:00	(Euro Area) ECB Elderson Speech	Low	EUR
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
16:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - During early Tuesday, WTI crude oil prices remained defensive around $81.05, which is the lowest level seen in a week. The black gold has struggled to show positive movement despite China's optimistic economic data, instead consolidating its heavy loss from the previous day, which was the biggest in a month.

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a Q1 GDP growth of 2.2% QoQ, exceeding the expected 2.2% growth and surpassing the 0.0% reading from the previous quarter. Additionally, March's retail sales growth soared to 10.9% YoY, beating the 7.4% forecast and the 3.5% figure from the prior month. However, industrial production growth fell below the expected 4.0%, registering at 3.9% versus the 2.4% reading from the previous period.

Buy Scenario: - Despite the positive economic data, the black gold is approaching the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $81.40 due to a nearly oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) line (14).

It's important to note, however, that the commodity faces bearish Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) signals and a horizontal resistance area between $81.60 and $80, which has been in place for the past two weeks. This could pose a challenge for any further upward momentum. If the black gold overcomes this hurdle, the recent multi-day high of $83.40 will be the next level to watch. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - On the other hand, if the WTI crude oil price experiences further downside, it may test the $80.00 round figure before challenging the previous resistance line from late January, which now serves as support around $79.20. If the quote remains bearish beyond this point, an upward-sloping support line from March 20 at approximately $77.30 will be the last defense for the WTI bulls. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -