Published on Apr 17, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 17-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
08:30	(Euro Area) ECB McCaul Speech	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Slovakia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech	Low	GBP
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - WTI crude oil is down by 0.33% on the day, trading around $82.30 by the press time, as buyers in the energy market appear to have lost momentum after a four-week uptrend. The latest weakness in the black gold's price comes despite the retreat of the US Dollar, as concerns grow over the easing energy demand due to economic uncertainty. The cautious mood in the market ahead of this week's significant data/events, including the first readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI for April and China's first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is also contributing to the decline in the commodity's price.

In addition to these factors, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly oil market report is putting downward pressure on WTI crude oil. According to the IEA, the output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers could exacerbate an oil supply deficit that is expected in the second half of the year, which could ultimately harm consumers and the global economic recovery.

Buy Scenario: - The current auction range for the oil price has shifted upwards from $79.00-81.80 to $81.80-83.40, indicating a strong upward trend. Additionally, the advancing 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.00 is providing support to oil bulls.

On the two-hour time frame, a lower high has formed on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14), signaling a possible exhaustion in the upward momentum. However, the lack of follow-up selling after this loss of momentum suggests that the asset may be preparing for a recovery.

For those looking to buy, a move above the April 13 high of $83.00 could provide a buying opportunity. This would likely drive the asset towards the November 16 high at $87.47, followed by the round-level resistance at $90.00. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - On the other hand, if the oil price falls below the April 03 low, it may fill the gap created by the surprise announcement of production cuts by OPEC+. This could push the asset towards the March 31 high at $75.78 and the March 28 low at $72.26. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -