Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 15-06-2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 15-06-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis


Key Points: -


·       WTI bears regain control as they return to the market following a one-week high. The strength of the US Dollar, along with bearish forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and downbeat weekly oil inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), support the selling pressure on oil.


·       Market participants are now focused on upcoming US Retail Sales data and further clues regarding the energy market, which could provide fresh impetus for WTI prices.


·       Please note that the phrase "WTI bears" refers to traders who have a bearish outlook on WTI oil prices, expecting them to decline.


Today's Scenario: -


WTI crude oil is trading with slight losses around $68.70 in early Thursday's European session. The market sentiment is weighing on the black gold due to several factors, including downbeat weekly inventory data, a stronger US Dollar, and mixed headlines about the energy markets.


The negative impact on WTI stems from the unexpected build in the weekly oil inventory data reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The inventory showed a build of 7.92 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a drawdown of 0.51 million barrels and the previous drawdown of 0.451 million barrels.


Additionally, the recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, as reflected in the FOMC Economic Projections and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, have exerted downward pressure on the energy benchmark.


The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a statement stating that global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, reaching a record of 102.3 million bpd. However, JP Morgan, a leading US bank, has revised its oil price forecasts for 2023 and 2024, citing global supply growth offsetting the rise in demand and inventory build-up, which lowers the risk of price spikes.


Furthermore, downbeat economic data from China, including Retail Sales and Industrial Production, along with the strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY), have contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding oil.


Traders in the energy markets should closely monitor market sentiment, particularly the outcomes of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US Retail Sales data. Any intensification of the risk-off mood could potentially lead to further losses for WTI crude oil.


Diagram of WTI Crude Oil (US Oil): -


Economic Events: -


Date      Event                                                                                            Impact        Currency

0:00      (United States) Fed Press Conference                                              High  USD

4:15      (New Zealand) GDP Growth Rate YoY                                         Medium NZD

4:15      (New Zealand) GDP Growth Rate QoQ                                       Medium NZD

5:20      (Japan) Foreign Bond Investment                                       Low  JPY

5:20      (Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners                                           Low  JPY

5:20      (Japan) Machinery Orders YoY                                                   Medium   JPY

5:20      (Japan) Machinery Orders MoM                                               Medium   JPY

5:20      (Japan) Imports YoY                                                                           Low     JPY

5:20      (Japan) Balance of Trade                                                    High    JPY

5:20      (Japan) Exports YoY                                                                    Medium     JPY

5:30      (Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting                                                Medium   EUR

7:00      (Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations                      Low AUD

7:00      (Australia) Part Time Employment Chg                                      Medium AUD

7:00      (Australia) Participation Rate                                                             Low   AUD

7:00      (Australia) Full Time Employment Chg                                       Medium AUD

7:00      (Australia) Unemployment Rate                                                       High   AUD

7:00      (Australia) Employment Change                                                       High   AUD

7:00      (Australia) RBA Bulletin                                                              Medium    AUD

7:00      (China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement                         Low CNY

7:00      (China) House Price Index YoY                                                     Medium  CNY

7:30      (China) Unemployment Rate                                                            High   CNY

7:30      (China) Retail Sales YoY                                                                      High    CNY

7:30      (China) Industrial Production YoY                                       High CNY

7:30      (China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY                   Medium CNY

9:05      (Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction                                                              Low  JPY

10:00    (Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoM                                                  Low JPY

10:00    (Netherlands) Unemployment Rate                                Medium EUR

10:30    (Finland) GDP YoY                                                                                 Low   EUR

12:00    (Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM                                  Low CHF

12:00    (Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY                       Low CHF

12:15    (France) Inflation Rate MoM                                                      Medium   EUR

12:15    (France) Inflation Rate YoY                                                         Medium   EUR

12:15    (France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM                         Low EUR

12:15    (France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY                                           Low  EUR

13:30    (Spain) Balance of Trade                                                             Medium    EUR

14:10    (Spain) Obligacion Auction                                                    Low   EUR

14:10    (Spain) Bonos Auction                                                                        Low    EUR

14:30    (Euro Area) Balance of Trade                                                      Medium  EUR

14:30    (France) 5-Year OAT Auction                                                               Low  EUR

14:30    (France) 3-Year OAT Auction                                                               Low  EUR

14:30    (Greece) Construction Output YoY                                      Low EUR

14:30    (Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY                                                       Low   EUR

14:30    (Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY                                  Low EUR

14:30    (Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM                                     Low  EUR

15:00    (Belgium) Construction Output YoY                                     Low  EUR

15:30    (France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction                       Low EUR

15:30    (Ireland) Balance of Trade                                                    Low   EUR

16:00    (Portugal) Economic Activity YoY                                                      Low   EUR

16:00    (Portugal) Private Consumption YoY                                                  Low EUR

17:45    (Canada) Housing Starts                                                              Medium   CAD

17:45    (Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision                                            High  EUR

17:45    (Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate                                     Low  EUR

17:45    (Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate                                                      High   EUR

18:00    (Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM                                                Low  CAD

18:00    (United States) Import Prices YoY                                       Low  USD

18:00    (United States) Export Prices YoY                                       Low  USD

18:00    (United States) Import Prices MoM                               Medium USD

18:00    (United States) Export Prices MoM                             Medium  USD

18:00    (United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index              Medium USD

18:00    (United States) Retail Sales YoY                                                       High    USD

18:00    (United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM                      High USD

18:00    (United States) Retail Sales MoM                                      High  USD

18:00    (United States) Philly Fed Business Conditions                                Low USD

18:00    (United States) Philly Fed Employment                                            Low  USD

18:00    (United States) Philly Fed CAPEX Index                                             Low  USD

18:00    (United States) Philly Fed Prices Paid                                                Low  USD

18:00    (United States) Philly Fed New Orders                                              Low  USD

18:00    (United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index              Medium             USD

18:00    (United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average                              High USD

18:00    (United States) Continuing Jobless Claims                        High USD

18:00    (United States) Initial Jobless Claims                                                High  USD

18:00    (United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM                             High USD

18:15    (Euro Area) ECB Press Conference                                     High  EUR

18:30    (Belgium) Balance of Trade                                                                Low    EUR

18:30    (Kosovo) GDP Growth Rate YoY                                                        Low    EUR

18:45    (United States) Capacity Utilization                                     Low  USD

18:45    (United States) Manufacturing Production YoY                               Low USD

18:45    (United States) Industrial Production YoY                  Medium USD

18:45    (United States) Industrial Production MoM               Medium USD

18:45    (United States) Manufacturing Production MoM                            Low USD

19:30    (United States) Business Inventories MoM                Medium USD

19:30    (United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM                            Low USD

20:00    (United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change                                Low USD

21:00    (United States) 8-Week Bill Auction                                     Low  USD

21:00    (United States) 4-Week Bill Auction                                     Low  USD

21:05    (United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech                                             Low  GBP

21:30    (Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction                                                          Low    CAD

21:30    (United States) 15-Year Mortgage Rate                                            Low  USD

21:30    (United States) 30-Year Mortgage Rate                                            Low  USD


Buy Scenario: -


On Wednesday, the price retracement of WTI crude oil was accompanied by a decrease in both open interest and volume. This suggests that further weakness is not favored and opens up the possibility of a potential bounce in the short-term.


However, it's important to note that any bullish moves in the price of WTI are likely to encounter significant resistance around the monthly peak near the $75.00 per barrel level, which was reached on June 5th. This price level has proven to be a strong barrier in the past and may act as a significant hurdle for further upward movement. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.


Selling Scenario: -


Interestingly, the momentum of the energy bears appears to be waning, as indicated by the oscillators. This suggests that selling pressure may be losing strength. However, it is important to note that the triangle formation and the presence of key upcoming data/events add an element of uncertainty to the market.


Traders and investors should closely monitor the price action and watch for a breakout from the triangle pattern, as it could provide a clearer direction for WTI crude oil. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.


Support and Resistance Level: -

 Support           Resistance  

 S1 67.88   -     R1 70.25

 S2 66.89  -      R2 71.63

 S3 65.50  -      R3 72.62


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