Published on Jun 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 15-06-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Key Points: -

· WTI bears regain control as they return to the market following a one-week high. The strength of the US Dollar, along with bearish forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and downbeat weekly oil inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), support the selling pressure on oil.

· Market participants are now focused on upcoming US Retail Sales data and further clues regarding the energy market, which could provide fresh impetus for WTI prices.

· Please note that the phrase "WTI bears" refers to traders who have a bearish outlook on WTI oil prices, expecting them to decline.

Today's Scenario: -

WTI crude oil is trading with slight losses around $68.70 in early Thursday's European session. The market sentiment is weighing on the black gold due to several factors, including downbeat weekly inventory data, a stronger US Dollar, and mixed headlines about the energy markets.

The negative impact on WTI stems from the unexpected build in the weekly oil inventory data reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The inventory showed a build of 7.92 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a drawdown of 0.51 million barrels and the previous drawdown of 0.451 million barrels.

Additionally, the recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, as reflected in the FOMC Economic Projections and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, have exerted downward pressure on the energy benchmark.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a statement stating that global oil demand is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, reaching a record of 102.3 million bpd. However, JP Morgan, a leading US bank, has revised its oil price forecasts for 2023 and 2024, citing global supply growth offsetting the rise in demand and inventory build-up, which lowers the risk of price spikes.

Furthermore, downbeat economic data from China, including Retail Sales and Industrial Production, along with the strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY), have contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding oil.

Traders in the energy markets should closely monitor market sentiment, particularly the outcomes of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US Retail Sales data. Any intensification of the risk-off mood could potentially lead to further losses for WTI crude oil.

Diagram of WTI Crude Oil (US Oil): -

Economic Events: -

Date Event Impact Currency

0:00 (United States) Fed Press Conference High USD

4:15 (New Zealand) GDP Growth Rate YoY Medium NZD

4:15 (New Zealand) GDP Growth Rate QoQ Medium NZD

5:20 (Japan) Foreign Bond Investment Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Machinery Orders YoY Medium JPY

5:20 (Japan) Machinery Orders MoM Medium JPY

5:20 (Japan) Imports YoY Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) Balance of Trade High JPY

5:20 (Japan) Exports YoY Medium JPY

5:30 (Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting Medium EUR

7:00 (Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations Low AUD

7:00 (Australia) Part Time Employment Chg Medium AUD

7:00 (Australia) Participation Rate Low AUD

7:00 (Australia) Full Time Employment Chg Medium AUD

7:00 (Australia) Unemployment Rate High AUD

7:00 (Australia) Employment Change High AUD

7:00 (Australia) RBA Bulletin Medium AUD

7:00 (China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement Low CNY

7:00 (China) House Price Index YoY Medium CNY

7:30 (China) Unemployment Rate High CNY

7:30 (China) Retail Sales YoY High CNY

7:30 (China) Industrial Production YoY High CNY

7:30 (China) Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY Medium CNY

9:05 (Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction Low JPY

10:00 (Japan) Tertiary Industry Index MoM Low JPY

10:00 (Netherlands) Unemployment Rate Medium EUR

10:30 (Finland) GDP YoY Low EUR

12:00 (Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM Low CHF

12:00 (Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY Low CHF

12:15 (France) Inflation Rate MoM Medium EUR

12:15 (France) Inflation Rate YoY Medium EUR

12:15 (France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

12:15 (France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

13:30 (Spain) Balance of Trade Medium EUR

14:10 (Spain) Obligacion Auction Low EUR

14:10 (Spain) Bonos Auction Low EUR

14:30 (Euro Area) Balance of Trade Medium EUR

14:30 (France) 5-Year OAT Auction Low EUR

14:30 (France) 3-Year OAT Auction Low EUR

14:30 (Greece) Construction Output YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

14:30 (Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM Low EUR

15:00 (Belgium) Construction Output YoY Low EUR

15:30 (France) 10-Year Index-Linked OAT Auction Low EUR

15:30 (Ireland) Balance of Trade Low EUR

16:00 (Portugal) Economic Activity YoY Low EUR

16:00 (Portugal) Private Consumption YoY Low EUR

17:45 (Canada) Housing Starts Medium CAD

17:45 (Euro Area) ECB Interest Rate Decision High EUR

17:45 (Euro Area) Marginal Lending Rate Low EUR

17:45 (Euro Area) Deposit Facility Rate High EUR

18:00 (Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM Low CAD

18:00 (United States) Import Prices YoY Low USD

18:00 (United States) Export Prices YoY Low USD

18:00 (United States) Import Prices MoM Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Export Prices MoM Medium USD

18:00 (United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales YoY High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales MoM High USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Business Conditions Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Employment Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed CAPEX Index Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed Prices Paid Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philly Fed New Orders Low USD

18:00 (United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Medium USD

18:00 (United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average High USD

18:00 (United States) Continuing Jobless Claims High USD

18:00 (United States) Initial Jobless Claims High USD

18:00 (United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM High USD

18:15 (Euro Area) ECB Press Conference High EUR

18:30 (Belgium) Balance of Trade Low EUR

18:30 (Kosovo) GDP Growth Rate YoY Low EUR

18:45 (United States) Capacity Utilization Low USD

18:45 (United States) Manufacturing Production YoY Low USD

18:45 (United States) Industrial Production YoY Medium USD

18:45 (United States) Industrial Production MoM Medium USD

18:45 (United States) Manufacturing Production MoM Low USD

19:30 (United States) Business Inventories MoM Medium USD

19:30 (United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Low USD

20:00 (United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change Low USD

21:00 (United States) 8-Week Bill Auction Low USD

21:00 (United States) 4-Week Bill Auction Low USD

21:05 (United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech Low GBP

21:30 (Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction Low CAD

21:30 (United States) 15-Year Mortgage Rate Low USD

21:30 (United States) 30-Year Mortgage Rate Low USD

Buy Scenario: -

On Wednesday, the price retracement of WTI crude oil was accompanied by a decrease in both open interest and volume. This suggests that further weakness is not favored and opens up the possibility of a potential bounce in the short-term.

However, it's important to note that any bullish moves in the price of WTI are likely to encounter significant resistance around the monthly peak near the $75.00 per barrel level, which was reached on June 5th. This price level has proven to be a strong barrier in the past and may act as a significant hurdle for further upward movement. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: -

Interestingly, the momentum of the energy bears appears to be waning, as indicated by the oscillators. This suggests that selling pressure may be losing strength. However, it is important to note that the triangle formation and the presence of key upcoming data/events add an element of uncertainty to the market.

Traders and investors should closely monitor the price action and watch for a breakout from the triangle pattern, as it could provide a clearer direction for WTI crude oil. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.