Published on May 15, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 15-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) PPI YoY	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) PPI MoM	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Eurogroup Meeting	Medium	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
04:45	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoY	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoM	Low	CHF
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) CPI	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Belgium) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:15	(Canada) Housing Starts	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
13:45	(United States) Fed Bostic Speech	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:15	(United States) Fed Kashkari Speech	Medium	USD
15:00	(Canada) Financial System Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:30	(United States) Fed Barkin Speech	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
22:00	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - In the Asian session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX are trading sideways around the $70.00 level. The oil price is experiencing selling pressure due to concerns over a potential recession in the economy caused by the delay in negotiations over the United States borrowing cap limit.

There is growing anxiety that if the White House and top Republican leaders are unable to reach an agreement, the US Treasury will not have enough funds to meet its payment obligations once the debt ceiling is reached. This situation could lead to a significant loss in production capacity and result in the loss of millions of jobs. The market is closely watching these developments, which are contributing to the selling pressure on oil prices.

Buy Scenario: - A strong recovery above the high of May 10 at $73.80 would signal a potential upside move towards the high of May 02 at $76.06. A break above this level could open the door for a test of the high around $78.00, which was reached on April 26.Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - Despite the increasing likelihood of the Federal Reserve pausing its tightening policy, oil prices have been unable to benefit. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has reached a monthly high above 102.73, contributing to the downward pressure on oil.

After the breakdown of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern on an hourly scale, oil prices experienced a sell-off. Although there was a brief recovery towards $71.75, the previous support level turned into resistance for the oil bulls.

The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $71.13 is currently acting as a barrier for the oil bulls, preventing further upside momentum.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is indicating bearish sentiment as it oscillates within the range of 20.00-40.00, suggesting more weakness in the near term.

If oil prices continue to decline and break below the low of May 12 at $69.94, the next level of support to watch for is the low of May 03 at $67.92. A further decline below this level could expose the market to the low of May 04 at $63.60. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -