Published on Apr 13, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 13-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
02:30	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Employment Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Unemployment Rate	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Participation Rate	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Balance of Trade	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 21-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 14-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Economic Activity YoY	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Private Consumption YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:45	(Germany) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
14:00	(Canada) BoC Gov Macklem Speech	Medium	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX have recently stalled after hitting a new four-month high of $83.48 on Wednesday. The surge in the price of oil was due to the United States' inflation data, which met market expectations and generated significant buying interest from market participants.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline figure has decelerated to 5.0%, while the core inflation rate, which excludes oil and food prices, rebounded to 5.6%. These figures have kept the likelihood of a consecutive 25 basis points (bps) rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) at elevated levels.

Buy Scenario: - The price of oil, represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX, has recently broken out of the Darvas Box chart pattern, which indicates increased volatility and trading volume. The chart pattern was in a range between $79.00 and $81.80. Currently, the price is supported by the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.44, indicating a strong bullish trend.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which confirms the activation of bullish momentum.

For buyers looking to enter the market, a potential mean reversion move towards the 20-EMA around $82.44 would provide a favorable risk-reward opportunity. This could trigger responsive buying and drive the price towards the November 16 high at $87.47, followed by the psychological resistance level of $90.00. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - However, a downside move below the April 03 low could force the price to fill the gap created by the surprise announcement of production cuts by OPEC+. This would drag the price towards the March 31 high at $75.78 and the March 28 low at $72.26.Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -