Published on Jun 12, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 12-06-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Key Points: -

· WTI crude oil prices are facing selling pressure, marking their third consecutive day of decline. Concerns about an increase in oil supply and a decrease in demand, along with a rebound in the US Dollar, have been pleasing to the bears in the market.

· The sustained trading below key moving averages and the relatively stable Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate the potential for further downside in the energy benchmark.

· Bulls in the market are exercising caution as the price struggles to surpass the $83.40 level. On the other hand, a decline towards $64.30 could provide additional motivation for WTI bears.

Today's Scenario: -

WTI prices declined for the second consecutive session on Friday. The decrease in prices was accompanied by a reduction in open interest and volume, indicating a lack of momentum for a sustained decline at the moment. However, it's worth noting that the next significant support level is anticipated around the late May low, which is near the $67.00 per barrel mark.

Diagram of WTI Crude Oil (US Oil): -

Economic Events: -

Date Event Impact Currency

4:15 (New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY Low NZD

4:15 (New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM Low NZD

5:20 (Japan) PPI YoY Low JPY

5:20 (Japan) PPI MoM Low JPY

5:31 (Ireland) Construction PMI Low EUR

10:30 (Finland) Current Account Low EUR

11:30 (Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY Low JPY

12:30 (Slovakia) Construction Output YoY Low EUR

13:30 (China) Total Social Financing Low CNY

13:30 (China) New Yuan Loans Low CNY

13:30 (China) M2 Money Supply YoY Low CNY

13:30 (China) Outstanding Loan Growth YoY Low CNY

13:30 (Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment Medium CHF

13:30 (Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment Medium AUD

13:30 (Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment Medium JPY

13:30 (European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment Medium EUR

13:30 (United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment Medium GBP

13:30 (Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment Medium CAD

13:30 (New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment Medium NZD

15:15 (European Union) EU Bond Auction Low EUR

15:15 (European Union) 15-Year Bond Auction Low EUR

18:30 (Ecuador) Balance of Trade Low USD

18:30 (France) 3-Month BTF Auction Low EUR

18:30 (France) 12-Month BTF Auction Low EUR

18:30 (France) 6-Month BTF Auction Low EUR

20:30 (Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY Low EUR

20:30 (United States) Consumer Inflation Expectations Low USD

21:00 (United States) 6-Month Bill Auction Low USD

21:00 (United States) 3-Year Note Auction Low USD

22:30 (United States) 3-Month Bill Auction Low USD

22:30 (United States) 10-Year Note Auction Low USD

23:30 (United States) Monthly Budget Statement Medium USD

Buy Scenario: -

On the upside, a clear break above the upper trendline of the triangle, currently around $73.00, could challenge the 50-DMA resistance at $74.55. Further resistance levels include the 200-DMA near $78.50 and the psychological level of $80.00, which could test the bullish momentum for WTI.

However, it's important to note that a significant resistance area, spanning from $82.60 to $83.40 and consisting of multiple levels marked since December 2022, may pose a challenge for WTI's further upside beyond $80.00. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: -

WTI prices dropped to a new intraday low around $69.50, extending its decline for the third consecutive day as the European session begins on Monday. This decline is in line with concerns about oversupply and weak energy demand in the current sluggish market conditions.

The steady RSI (14) line and the inability of WTI to surpass the 50-day moving average (DMA) and 200-DMA suggest that the bearish sentiment persists in the oil market.

However, WTI is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle formation that has been in place for the past 1.5 months, with resistance at around $73.00 and support at around $68.30. If the price breaks below the triangle formation, it may encounter strong support around the double bottoms at $64.30 before the bears regain full control. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.