Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 12-06-2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 12-06-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis


Key Points: -


·       WTI crude oil prices are facing selling pressure, marking their third consecutive day of decline. Concerns about an increase in oil supply and a decrease in demand, along with a rebound in the US Dollar, have been pleasing to the bears in the market.


·       The sustained trading below key moving averages and the relatively stable Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate the potential for further downside in the energy benchmark.


·       Bulls in the market are exercising caution as the price struggles to surpass the $83.40 level. On the other hand, a decline towards $64.30 could provide additional motivation for WTI bears.

Today's Scenario: -


WTI prices declined for the second consecutive session on Friday. The decrease in prices was accompanied by a reduction in open interest and volume, indicating a lack of momentum for a sustained decline at the moment. However, it's worth noting that the next significant support level is anticipated around the late May low, which is near the $67.00 per barrel mark.

Diagram of WTI Crude Oil (US Oil): -

Economic Events: -


Date      Event                                                                                        Impact             Currency

4:15      (New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY    Low     NZD

4:15      (New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM Low     NZD

5:20      (Japan) PPI YoY                                                                            Low             JPY

5:20      (Japan) PPI MoM                                                           Low           JPY

5:31      (Ireland) Construction PMI                                            Low          EUR

10:30    (Finland) Current Account                                            Low          EUR

11:30    (Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY                                Low         JPY

12:30    (Slovakia) Construction Output YoY                             Low         EUR

13:30    (China) Total Social Financing                                                    Low           CNY

13:30    (China) New Yuan Loans                                                          Low CNY

13:30    (China) M2 Money Supply YoY                                                   Low           CNY

13:30    (China) Outstanding Loan Growth YoY                                      Low          CNY

13:30    (Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment     Medium         CHF

13:30    (Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment         Medium         AUD

13:30    (Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment                               Medium          JPY

13:30    (European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment            Medium         EUR

13:30    (United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment            Medium         GBP

13:30    (Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment                          Medium           CAD

13:30    (New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment                 Medium         NZD

15:15    (European Union) EU Bond Auction                            Low          EUR

15:15    (European Union) 15-Year Bond Auction                                  Low          EUR

18:30    (Ecuador) Balance of Trade                                                       Low            USD

18:30    (France) 3-Month BTF Auction                                                 Low            EUR

18:30    (France) 12-Month BTF Auction                                               Low            EUR

18:30    (France) 6-Month BTF Auction                                                 Low            EUR

20:30    (Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY                                                       Low            EUR

20:30    (United States) Consumer Inflation Expectations                    Low         USD

21:00    (United States) 6-Month Bill Auction                                        Low          USD

21:00    (United States) 3-Year Note Auction                                         Low          USD

22:30    (United States) 3-Month Bill Auction                                        Low          USD

22:30    (United States) 10-Year Note Auction                                       Low          USD

23:30    (United States) Monthly Budget Statement       Medium        USD


Buy Scenario: -


On the upside, a clear break above the upper trendline of the triangle, currently around $73.00, could challenge the 50-DMA resistance at $74.55. Further resistance levels include the 200-DMA near $78.50 and the psychological level of $80.00, which could test the bullish momentum for WTI.


However, it's important to note that a significant resistance area, spanning from $82.60 to $83.40 and consisting of multiple levels marked since December 2022, may pose a challenge for WTI's further upside beyond $80.00. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.


Selling Scenario: -


WTI prices dropped to a new intraday low around $69.50, extending its decline for the third consecutive day as the European session begins on Monday. This decline is in line with concerns about oversupply and weak energy demand in the current sluggish market conditions.


The steady RSI (14) line and the inability of WTI to surpass the 50-day moving average (DMA) and 200-DMA suggest that the bearish sentiment persists in the oil market.


However, WTI is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle formation that has been in place for the past 1.5 months, with resistance at around $73.00 and support at around $68.30. If the price breaks below the triangle formation, it may encounter strong support around the double bottoms at $64.30 before the bears regain full control. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.


Support and Resistance Level: -

 Support            Resistance  

 S1 69.83    -      R1 71.50

 S2 69.20   -       R2 72.53

 S3 68.17   -       R3 73.16


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