Published on May 12, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 12-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
04:00	(New Zealand) Business Inflation Expectations	Low	NZD
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Finland) Current Account	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Balance of Trade	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment QoQ	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Business Investment YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Orders YoY	Low	GBP
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
08:00	(Spain) CPI	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(United States) Fed Bowman Speech	Medium	USD
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
10:00	(China) Current Account	Medium	CNY
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
12:15	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
13:00	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:30	(United States) Export Prices YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Import Prices YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Import Prices MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Export Prices MoM	Medium	USD
13:45	(Germany) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Sentiment	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Consumer Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Michigan Current Conditions	Low	USD
15:30	(Canada) Senior Loan Officer Survey	Medium	CAD
17:00	(United States) WASDE Report	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - WTI crude oil continues to face downward pressure for the third day in a row, as it retreated from a one-week high. The price of oil is currently experiencing selling pressure, pushing it to refresh its intraday low around $71.10 during early Friday.

Buy Scenario: - On the Buying side of WTI Crude Oil, there is a strong resistance zone near $71.70, where the 200-HMA and a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the oil price weakness from April 24 to May 03 converge. This zone presents a significant obstacle for buyers to overcome and regain control of the market.

To regain control, the WTI bulls would need to successfully break above the 100-HMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, located around $72.55 and $73.50 respectively. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - WTI crude oil has experienced a downside break of the 100 and 200 Hourly Moving Averages (HMAs), reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the market. The MACD and RSI indicators are showing sluggish conditions, further supporting the bearish bias for oil.

It is important to note that there is a horizontal support area that has been in place for about a week, ranging around $70.70-60. This support area, along with the oversold RSI (14) line, may limit the immediate downside for WTI crude oil.

If the price continues to decline, it could find support at the psychological level of $70.00 and then at $69.50 before reaching the recent multi-month low around $64.30. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -