Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 12-04-2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 12-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis
WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:30(United States) Fed Kashkari SpeechMediumUSD
00:50(Japan) Bank Lending YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) PPI YoYLowJPY
00:50(Japan) PPI MoMLowJPY
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders MoMMediumJPY
00:50(Japan) Machinery Orders YoYMediumJPY
02:30(Australia) Building Permits MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Private House Approvals MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) Building Permits YoYLowAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Balance of TradeLowEUR
05:45(Australia) RBA Bullock SpeechMediumAUD
06:00(Finland) Current AccountLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) PPI YoYLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) PPI MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 6-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:10(Italy) 12-Month BOT AuctionLowEUR
10:10(Italy) 4-Month BOT AuctionLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 30-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) CPILowEUR
11:00(Latvia) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
13:30(United States) Inflation Rate MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Core Inflation Rate MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Core Inflation Rate YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Inflation Rate YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) CPIHighUSD
13:30(United States) CPI s.aHighUSD
13:30(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
14:00(Ecuador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
14:00(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey SpeechMediumGBP
15:00(Canada) BoC Monetary Policy ReportHighCAD
15:00(Canada) BoC Interest Rate DecisionMediumCAD
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:00(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
16:00(Canada) BoC Press ConferenceMediumCAD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
18:00(United States) 10-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
19:00(United States) FOMC MinutesHighUSD
19:00(United States) Monthly Budget StatementMediumUSD
20:15(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey SpeechMediumGBP
Today's Scenario: - The price of WTI crude oil is hovering around the $81.50-60 level, as markets become uncertain ahead of the release of US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday. The market's caution is further compounded by the convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a downward-sloping trend line from December 2022, which is posing a challenge for buyers of the commodity.
Buy Scenario: - If the price manages to close above the $81.75 hurdle, it does not automatically approve the rally as the tops marked in January 2023 and December 2022, respectively near $82.70 and $83.30, could check oil price advances.
If the price remains strong above $83.30, there is a possibility of a run-up towards $90.00 and then to a November 2022 high near $92.95.
Overall, WTI crude oil is likely to remain a favorite for buyers, but the $81.70-75 hurdle appears to be a significant obstacle for oil bulls. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.
Selling Scenario: - WTI crude oil is trading near the $81.50-60 range, as investors turn cautious ahead of the US inflation data and Fed Minutes release on Wednesday.
The current market anxiety is compounded by the convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a downward-sloping trend line from December 2022, which creates a challenge for buyers at around $81.70-75.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 14 shows that the market is nearly overbought, further adding to doubts about any further advances in the commodity's price.
However, the bullish MACD signals and the oil's sustained trading beyond the 100-EMA, which currently sits around $78.15, are pushing back against bearish sentiment.
Even if the price falls below $78.15, there are multiple lows marked in February around $73.85 and $72.50 that could challenge oil sellers before they gain control. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 80.02-R1 82.17
S2 78.64-R2 82.93
S3 77.88-R3 84.32

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