Published on May 9, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 09-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Overtime Pay YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Average Cash Earnings YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending YoY	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Anniversary of Robert Schumans Declaration	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Europe Day	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:45	(France) Current Account	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Exports	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Imports	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Australia) 2023-24 Federal Budget	Medium	AUD
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Jefferson Speech	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs	Low	USD
17:05	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - Oil prices are currently trading in a sideways pattern below the $73.00 mark, with market participants waiting for the release of US inflation data. There are concerns that if the data shows inflation to be persistent, it could lead to a gloomy outlook for oil demand.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, a clear break of the resistance line around $73.10 will not be easy for the buyers, as the previous support line near $73.70 acts as an additional barrier for the bulls. Even if the oil price manages to sustain above $73.70, a horizontal resistance zone marked since April 24 near $76.80-90, followed by the $77.00 round figure, could pose a challenge to further upside.

Overall, while the oil price is showing signs of weakness, the path ahead for the bears is likely to be long and challenging. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - WTI crude oil is currently trading at $72.80, slightly lower from its one-week high, as sellers attempt to push the commodity lower. The oil price faces resistance from an immediate trend line and is weighed down by bearish MACD signals. However, the 200-hour moving average around $72.60 is expected to provide support and prevent further downside.

If the oil price breaks below the 200-HMA, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April 24 to May 03 downside, near $71.70, could offer support to the sellers. Further downside filters include $70.00, $69.40, and $67.30, before reaching the multi-month low of $64.30. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -