Published on May 8, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 08-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes	Medium	JPY
01:00	(France) Victory in Europe Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United Kingdom) Bank Holiday for the coronation of King Charles III	None	GBP
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMI	Medium	JPY
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMI	Low	JPY
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) NAB Business Confidence	High	AUD
06:00	(Estonia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Finland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Greece) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 3-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
15:00	(El Salvador) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(El Salvador) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoM	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - WTI crude oil has been trending higher for the past three days, after bouncing back from its lowest levels since December 2021, and is currently trading at $71.70 as we head into the European session on Monday. The recent uptrend can be attributed to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line rebounding from oversold levels.

Buy Scenario: - WTI crude oil has been on a three-day uptrend, bouncing back from its lowest levels since December 2021 to reach $71.70 as of Monday's European session. This recovery is due to the RSI (14) line rebounding from oversold territory.

However, there are bearish MACD signals and several resistance levels that could challenge further upside for the energy buyers. The 10-DMA level of approximately $73.00 is the first immediate resistance level that the WTI bulls must overcome. If they manage to do so, a downward-sloping trend line from mid-April and the 21-DMA could limit further advances in the commodity price, respectively near $73.90 and $76.85.

In the event that the energy benchmark remains firm beyond the 21-DMA, the support-turned-resistance line from December 2022, close to $77.40, can act as the final obstacle for the WTI bears. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - Meanwhile, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the commodity's downside from November 2022 to last week's bottom near $71.00, limits short-term declines in the WTI crude oil price. If the quote remains weak past $71.00, the $70.00 round figure and $68.00 may provide support before directing the bears to the latest multi-month low of around $64.30. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -