Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 05-04-2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 05-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis
WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Industry IndexMediumAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Construction IndexLowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Manufacturing IndexLowAUD
01:00(China) Qingming FestivalNoneCNY
01:01(Ireland) AIB Services PMILowEUR
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMIMediumJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMILowJPY
02:30(Australia) RBA Chart PackLowAUD
03:00(New Zealand) RBNZ Interest Rate DecisionMediumNZD
03:30(Australia) RBA Gov Lowe SpeechHighAUD
07:00(Germany) Factory Orders MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Industrial Production MoMMediumEUR
08:00(Spain) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Services PMIMediumEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Germany) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
09:00(United Kingdom) New Car Sales YoYLowGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMILowGBP
10:00(France) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Retail Sales YoYHighEUR
10:00(Italy) Retail Sales MoMHighEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Current AccountLowEUR
10:30(Germany) 7-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
11:00(Luxembourg) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
11:00(Spain) Consumer ConfidenceMediumEUR
11:00(Ireland) Unemployment RateLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
13:15(United States) ADP Employment ChangeHighUSD
13:30(Canada) ImportsLowCAD
13:30(Canada) ExportsLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Balance of TradeHighCAD
13:30(United States) ExportsMediumUSD
13:30(United States) ImportsMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Balance of TradeHighUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Business ActivityLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PricesLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing New OrdersLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing EmploymentMediumUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(Euro Area) ECB Lane SpeechLowEUR
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
17:00(Canada) 10-Year Bond AuctionLowCAD
Today's Scenario: - During the Asian trading session, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX have continued to recover and are now approaching $81.00. The oil price is anticipated to climb further to reach a two-month high of $81.74. This bullish trend in the oil market is attributed to the cooling United States economy, caused by contracting manufacturing activities and a slowdown in job openings. As a result, there is an increasing need for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause its policy-tightening measures and take early action to address the economic slowdown.
The Fed's decision to pause its policy-tightening measures would likely have a positive impact on the oil market, as it would lead to increased demand and consumption. This would provide a further boost to the oil price and support its upward momentum.
However, it is essential to monitor any developments in the global oil market closely, as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions could quickly reverse the current bullish trend. As such, traders and investors should remain vigilant and keep a close eye on any significant shifts in market dynamics.
Buy Scenario: - On a daily chart, the oil price is moving towards the horizontal resistance level at $83.30, which was set on December 01. The asset has shown a V-shaped recovery, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels, making the asset more attractive for value investors.
The oil price is significantly above the 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $76.38, indicating that there is a strong upside momentum in the market. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has entered the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which has not occurred in the last nine months. This indicates that there is a bullish reversal in the market sentiment.
If the oil price manages to break above the April 03 high near $81.60, then the bulls will likely drive the asset towards the December 01 high at $83.30, followed by the October 21 high at $85.66. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.
Selling Scenario: - On the other hand, if the oil price moves downwards and breaks below the March 31 low at $73.31, then the asset could head towards the March 23 high at $71.69. A further downside break below the latter level would drag the oil price towards the March 27 low at $69.18.
As with any commodity, there are always risks associated with trading in the oil market. It is essential to monitor market developments closely and adopt a risk management strategy to mitigate potential losses. Till will did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 79.83-R1 82.00
S2 78.65-R2 82.99
S3 77.66-R3 84.18

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