Published on Apr 4, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 04-04-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Australia) RBA Interest Rate Decision	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM s.a	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM s.a	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade s.a	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Consumer Expectations Survey	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) Index-Linked Bund Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index Current	Low	USD
10:30	(Germany) 30-Year Bund/â‚¬i Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Budget Balance	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Building Permits MoM	Low	CAD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Quits	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Openings	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders ex Transportation	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
17:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
17:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record	Medium	GBP
18:30	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(United States) Fed Mester Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - On early Tuesday, commodity traders are searching for new signals to extend the largest daily rise in eleven months, causing the WTI crude oil to hover around $80.30. As a result, the price of black gold is fluctuating near a resistance line that has been in place for seven weeks, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 14 indicates that the market is overbought.

The price of WTI crude oil has remained stagnant as traders wait for new catalysts to drive the market. The recent price surge has resulted in an overbought RSI, which implies that the market is experiencing a temporary uptrend. The resistance line that has been in place for seven weeks has been a crucial factor in determining the market's price movements. Commodity traders are now looking for fresh impulses to extend the largest daily gain in eleven months.

Buy Scenario: - During early Tuesday, WTI crude oil continues to remain near the $80.30 level as commodity traders seek fresh impetus to extend the largest daily jump in 11 months. However, the black gold is facing obstacles, including an overbought RSI (14), a trend line hurdle at $81.00, and a receding bullish bias of the MACD. Additionally, multiple tops marked in January 2023 around $82.70 are challenging WTI buyers.

If the energy benchmark surpasses $82.70, there may be a run-up toward the December 2022 high near $83.30. However, if the WTI bears maintain control, the $80.00 round figure and Monday's late swing low around $79.00 could be potential targets for pullback moves. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - The Oil bears may face resistance from an upward-sloping support line from March 24 and the 200-SMA, respectively located near $76.15 and $74.35. Should they break past $74.35, a fortnight-long support line around $70.80 and the $70.00 psychological magnet may lure the Oil sellers.

Overall, while WTI crude oil buyers seem to be losing momentum, the bears still have a long way to go before taking control of the market. Till will did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -