Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 03-05-2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 03-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis
WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Industry IndexMediumAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Construction IndexLowAUD
00:00(Australia) Ai Group Manufacturing IndexLowAUD
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Japan) Constitution Memorial DayNoneJPY
02:30(Australia) Retail Sales MoMHighAUD
02:30(Australia) RBA Chart PackLowAUD
07:45(France) Budget BalanceLowEUR
09:00(Italy) Unemployment RateHighEUR
10:00(Cyprus) Unemployment RateLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Unemployment RateHighEUR
10:00(France) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 2-Year Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:30(Germany) 7-Year Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Industrial Production MoMLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:10(European Union) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowEUR
11:30(Portugal) Budget BalanceLowEUR
12:00(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage RateMediumUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage ApplicationsLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Mortgage Market IndexLowUSD
12:00(United States) MBA Purchase IndexLowUSD
12:30(Germany) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
13:15(United States) ADP Employment ChangeHighUSD
14:30(United States) Treasury Refunding AnnouncementLowUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PricesLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing New OrdersLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing EmploymentMediumUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Non-Manufacturing Business ActivityLowUSD
15:00(United States) Total Vehicle SalesLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Production ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks ChangeMediumUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks ChangeLowUSD
15:30(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production ChangeLowUSD
16:30(United States) 17-Week Bill AuctionLowUSD
19:00(United States) Fed Interest Rate DecisionHighUSD
19:30(United States) Fed Press ConferenceHighUSD
23:45(New Zealand) Building Permits MoMLowNZD
Today's Scenario: - WTI crude oil is currently trading at its lowest levels since late March, with prices hovering around $71.50 during early Wednesday in Europe. The recent drop in the black gold price can be attributed to the apprehension in the energy market, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting announcements.
Mixed signals from the market are also impacting oil prices, with hopes of increased demand from China being offset by concerns over higher interest rates and banking issues. Additionally, the weekly oil inventories report by the American Petroleum Institute (API) has also contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices. According to the API, crude oil stocks declined by 3.939 million barrels during the week ending on April 28, compared to the previous week's decline of 6.083 million barrels.
Buy Scenario: - On the upside, if the oil price breaks confidently above the low from April 3 at $79.00, it could move towards the high from April 4 at $81.80 and the high from April 12 at $83.40. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.
Selling Scenario: - The price of oil is currently falling and is approaching its lowest level of the year, which was reached on March 20 at $64.39. The downward pressure on the price of oil intensified after it failed to break through the horizontal resistance level from the high on January 23 at $82.68.
The 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $75.20 is currently acting as a barrier for the oil price. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has fallen below 40.00, which suggests that further downside is possible in the absence of divergence and oversold signals.
If the price of oil falls below the low from May 2 at $71.37, the bears will likely push the asset further down towards the low from December 9, 2022 at $70.27, and the low from March 24 at $66.88. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 69.90-R1 74.56
S2 68.30-R2 77.63
S3 65.24-R3 79.22

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