Published on May 2, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 02-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Australia) RBA Interest Rate Decision	High	AUD
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Consumer Confidence	High	CHF
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployed Persons	Low	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI	High	CHF
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
09:30	(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index Current	Low	USD
10:00	(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	High	EUR
10:30	(Germany) Index-Linked Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) New Car Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Greece) Total Credit YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Italy) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Quits	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Openings	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders ex Transportation	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
17:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
17:00	(Italy) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Financial Stability Report	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Participation Rate	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index YoY	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index QoQ	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Employment Change QoQ	High	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Unemployment Rate	High	NZD

Today's Scenario: - WTI crude oil is currently trading around $75.50 and is showing signs of bearishness as it continues its downward trend from the previous day. This follows a reversal from the 100-day moving average and a resistance line that dates back to mid-April. The MACD signals are bearish and the RSI (14) line is steady, indicating that the commodity may attempt to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April rally, which is currently located around $73.90.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, the immediate recovery of the WTI crude oil price is guarded by the resistance line near $76.20. If it manages to break above it, the 100-DMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels could pose challenges for the oil buyers around $77.00 and $79.00, respectively. However, a break above $80.00 psychological level could act as the last defense of the oil bears. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - The WTI crude oil price is currently hovering around $75.50, showing a bearish trend as indicated by the MACD signals and steady RSI (14) line. The energy benchmark is likely to make another attempt to break the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April upside, located near $73.90. However, the $72.65-50 horizontal area, which has acted as support since early January, could prove to be a challenge for the oil sellers.

In case the oil price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $71.60, it could decline further towards $69.00. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -