Published on May 1, 2023

Daily Analysis For WTI Crude (US Oil) 01-05-2023

WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for WTI Crude Oil (US Oil)

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
01:00	(Austria) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Belgium) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Cyprus) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ecuador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(El Salvador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(Estonia) Spring Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Euro Area) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Finland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(France) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Germany) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ireland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Italy) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Latvia) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Lithuania) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Malta) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:00	(Portugal) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Spain) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United Kingdom) May Day Bank Holiday	None	GBP
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM	Low	AUD
06:00	(Japan) Consumer Confidence	High	JPY
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - On Monday, WTI crude oil price dropped to $76.00 after a brief corrective bounce from the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-April uptrend. The decline comes as the black gold retreats from a two-week-old falling trend line and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) line remains steady, further adding to the bearish sentiment.

Buy Scenario: - WTI crude oil has retreated to $76.00 after a corrective bounce off the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March-April uptrend on Monday. The oil benchmark is currently trading below a two-week-old falling trend line and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining steady and indicating a downside bias.

While the 200-day SMA level at around $75.85 and bullish Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals challenge buyers, the oil price's weakness below $75.85 would require confirmation from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at around $73.85 and the late March swing low of around $72.70 to convince the bears. Till we do not advise to buy in WTI US oil.

Selling Scenario: - If the bears manage to push through these levels, the next significant support is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. On the other hand, immediate descending resistance lines and the 50-day SMA at $76.80 and $77.10, respectively, can challenge short-term buyers. However, if the bulls manage to overcome these levels, they may encounter resistance levels near $79.50, the $80.00 round figure, and $81.60 before reaching the latest multi-day peak of $83.40, marked in April.

In summary, the WTI crude oil price is likely to remain on the bull's radar unless it stays below $72.70. Till we did not advise to sell WTI Crude oil.

Support and Resistance Level: -