Published on Mar 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 28-03-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
1:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
4:35	(Japan) 40-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
5:15	(Australia) RBA Connolly Speech	Medium	AUD
7:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
7:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
7:45	(France) Business Climate Indicator	Low	EUR
7:45	(France) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:00	(Italy) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:00	(Italy) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:35	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Medium	EUR
9:45	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Short Term Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Goods Trade Balance	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoM	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) CB Consumer Confidence	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair experienced a sharp decline in value after it failed to maintain a position above the 131.50 level during the Asian session. This decrease in value is following an extended correction in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which is believed to be linked to the diminishing concerns surrounding US banking. In contrast, the Japanese Yen has received support due to additional fiscal support from Japan, which has further contributed to the pair's decline in value.

Buy Scenario: - To target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 132.028, the USD/JPY pair must first move through the 131.260 pivot. If the pair manages to break through the Monday high of 131.759, this could signal a bullish session for the USD/JPY. However, for a breakout to occur, positive news regarding the banking sector and US statistics must also support it.

Should the bullish momentum continue, the pair's next target may be the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 132.527. Further resistance can be found at the Third Major Resistance Level at 133.794, where the bulls may be tested. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - If the USD/JPY pair fails to move through the pivot at 131.260, it may encounter support at the First Major Support Level (S1) of 130.761. However, as long as there is no significant sell-off in the banking sector, the pair should be able to avoid falling below the psychological level of 130 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at 129.993. The Third Major Support Level (S3) can be found at 128. 726.Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -