Published on Apr 27, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 27-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(Ireland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(Netherlands) King's Birthday	None	EUR
02:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Business Confidence	Medium	NZD
02:30	(Australia) Export Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Import Prices QoQ	Low	AUD
02:30	(China) Industrial Profits (YTD) YoY	Low	CNY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Finland) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
09:30	(Portugal) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Services Sentiment	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Economic Sentiment	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro area) Selling Price Expectations	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 5-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) GDP Growth Rate YoY	Low	EUR
12:00	(Spain) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
12:00	(Canada) CFIB Business Barometer	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Real Consumer Spending QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Sales QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PCE Prices QoQ	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Price Index QoQ	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) GDP Growth Rate QoQ	High	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Weekly Earnings YoY	Low	CAD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Pending Home Sales YoY	Medium	USD
15:01	(Australia) CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM	Low	AUD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:15	(Euro Area) ECB Panetta Speech	Low	EUR
18:00	(United States) 7-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(New Zealand) ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - During early Thursday, USD/JPY is seen consolidating recent losses around mid-133.00s, as markets prepare for the release of US Q1 GDP data. The pair's corrective bounce could be attributed to cautious optimism surrounding the extension of the US debt ceiling and Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials' support for the current ultra-easy monetary policy.

However, the optimism surrounding the recently passed "Limit, Save, Grow Act" has been challenged by the White House spokesperson, who stated that President Joe Biden has made it clear that the bill has no chance of becoming law. This has dampened the initial optimism surrounding the bill, which had sparked fears of long and difficult discussions on the key matter. Nonetheless, Reuters has reported that the US House of Representatives narrowly passed a bill to raise the nation's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling on Wednesday, defying President Joe Biden by attaching sweeping spending cuts for the next decade.

Buy Scenario: - To continue the upward momentum, USD/JPY needs to break above the pivot level at 133.540 and aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 134.066. A breach of the Wednesday high of 133.943 would indicate a bullish trend for USD/JPY, but it also depends on the market sentiment and US economic data.

If the buying pressure persists, the bulls may try to test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 134.468, followed by the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at 135.396. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - However, if USD/JPY fails to surpass the pivot level, the First Major Support Level (S1) at 133.138 may come into play. Nonetheless, the pair is likely to avoid dipping below 132.50 unless there is a major sell-off in the dollar. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at 132.612 is expected to provide some support, followed by the Third Major Support Level (S3) at 131.684. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -