Published on Apr 26, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 26-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
02:30	(Australia) RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Inflation Rate QoQ	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Inflation Rate YoY	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) CPI	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Monthly CPI Indicator	High	AUD
04:00	(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD
04:35	(Japan) 2-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Netherlands) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) GfK Consumer Confidence	High	EUR
07:45	(France) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
09:00	(Austria) Bank Austria Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Economic Sentiment Index	Low	CHF
09:30	(United Kingdom) Labour Productivity QoQ	Low	GBP
09:30	(Slovenia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 6-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:20	(Euro Area) ECB Jochnick Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 15-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(France) Jobseekers Total	Low	EUR
11:00	(France) Unemployment Benefit Claims	Medium	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Distributive Trades	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:00	(Euro Area) ECB Guindos Speech	High	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Goods Trade Balance	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM	High	USD
14:45	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 2-Year FRN Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 5-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:30	(Canada) BoC Summary of Deliberations	Medium	CAD

Today's Scenario: - the USD/JPY buyers will have to risk a fresh entry if the pair closes daily beyond the 50-DMA level of 133.80. Even so, the latest swing high around 135.15 and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since November 2022, surrounding 133.45-70, will be a tough challenge for the Yen pair bulls.

In summary, the USD/JPY currency pair remains on the bear's radar due to the 50-DMA breakdown. Traders are advised to monitor the market closely for any significant changes in market sentiment, particularly related to the USD/JPY currency pair.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair has recovered from an intraday low of 134.00 to near 134.25 at the time of writing, as the bulls strive to defend the gains made at the start of the week. This recovery is supported by comments made by the newly appointed Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, in the Japanese parliament, who has defended the easy money policy. Additionally, the convergence of the 50-SMA and a one-week-old ascending trend line around 134.00 has also contributed to the rebound.

Although the steady RSI (14) and sluggish MACD suggest that the Yen pair is likely to extend its rebound from the key support, the horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since March 10, close to 135.05-15, poses a significant challenge for the USD/JPY bulls. If the pair manages to surpass this level, it could test 135.50 and the round figure of 136.00, before reaching the previous monthly high of around 137.90. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - The USD/JPY currency pair's bearish bias has been reinforced by the steady RSI (14) line around the 50.00 level and the impending bear cross on the MACD indicator. As a result, the Yen pair is poised to revisit the eight-day low marked on Tuesday around 133.35.

However, the 100-DMA support of near 132.90 could pose a challenge to the USD/JPY bears in the future. In the event that the quote remains bearish beyond 132.90, an upward-sloping support line from mid-January, close to 131.90 by press time, will be the last line of defense for the Yen pair buyers. A break of which could pave the way for the pair's fall towards the yearly low of near 127.20. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -