Published on Apr 25, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 25-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Australia) ANZAC Day	None	AUD
01:00	(Italy) Liberation Day	None	EUR
01:00	(New Zealand) ANZAC Day	None	NZD
01:00	(Portugal) Liberty Day	None	EUR
03:45	(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	USD
03:45	(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
08:00	(Spain) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Member Broadbent	Low	GBP
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends Orders	Medium	GBP
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Business Optimism Index	Medium	GBP
13:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
13:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index MoM	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) CB Consumer Confidence	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4.5 to 7 yrs	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 2-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Imports	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Exports	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Balance of Trade	Medium	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair has bounced back from its intraday low of 134.00 and is currently trading near 134.25, as the bulls struggle to maintain their gains from the start of the week amidst a slow Tuesday morning. This recovery is consistent with comments made by the newly appointed Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, who defended the easy money policy in the Japanese parliament.

Furthermore, a combination of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and an ascending trend line that is a week old, located around 134.00 as of press time, has provided support and triggered the USD/JPY pair's rebound.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair has recovered from an intraday low of 134.00 to near 134.25 at the time of writing, as the bulls strive to defend the gains made at the start of the week. This recovery is supported by comments made by the newly appointed Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, in the Japanese parliament, who has defended the easy money policy. Additionally, the convergence of the 50-SMA and a one-week-old ascending trend line around 134.00 has also contributed to the rebound.

Although the steady RSI (14) and sluggish MACD suggest that the Yen pair is likely to extend its rebound from the key support, the horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since March 10, close to 135.05-15, poses a significant challenge for the USD/JPY bulls. If the pair manages to surpass this level, it could test 135.50 and the round figure of 136.00, before reaching the previous monthly high of around 137.90. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, pullback moves remain unlikely unless the quote remains above the support confluence at 134.00. Even if the USD/JPY price breaks the 134.00 support, an upward-sloping trend line from April 05, around 133.65 at present, may provide support to the bears before they take control. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -