Published on May 24, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 24-05-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Ecuador) The Battle of Pichincha	None	USD
02:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
03:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	Medium	NZD
04:00	(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
04:00	(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	USD
04:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Press Conference	Medium	NZD
06:00	(Finland) Export Prices YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:10	(Australia) RBA Jacobs Speech	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Expectations	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Current Conditions	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Business Climate	High	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 15-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends Orders	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 2-Year FRN Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
17:10	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 5-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
19:00	(United States) FOMC Minutes	High	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair is currently experiencing a decrease in volatility, hovering around 138.60, as investors are uncertain about the future direction of the foreign exchange market. The asset is facing difficulties in making a definitive move due to a lack of clarity surrounding the US debt-ceiling negotiations and the absence of a bipartisan agreement.

In early Tokyo trading, S&P500 futures have shown some gains. However, US equities witnessed significant selling pressure on Tuesday, with concerns among investors that a failure to address the country's payment obligations could lead to a recession. The overall market sentiment has been dampened by the uncertainty prevailing in global markets.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair has declined after reaching its highest level in six months earlier in the trading session. This rapid downturn has potentially established 138.91 (R1) as a resistance level. It is expected to act as a pivot point in the near term, although the true pivot point is at 138.58.

If the price manages to sustain a move above 139.10, it would indicate the presence of buyers. In such a scenario, there is potential for a near-term surge towards 139.25 (R2), driven by upward momentum. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the price sustains a move below 138.25, it would signal the presence of sellers. However, as long as the pivot level at 138.58 remains intact, the long-term bias will continue to favor the upside direction. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -