Published on Mar 23, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 23-03-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) SNB Interest Rate Decision	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
11:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Balz Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
12:00	(Germany) undesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Current Account	Medium	USD
12:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Chicago Fed National Activity Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) 10-Year TIPS Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair's downward movement has slowed down after experiencing a strong sell-off following the dovish outlook of the Fed. The bullish investors may aim for a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level that corresponds to the neckline of the M-formation.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair's first resistance level would be the R1 pivot at 133.06. If the pair manages to break above this level, it would immediately test the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 133.11. Further resistance levels to watch out for include the R2 daily pivot point at 133.64, followed by the confluence of the 100 and 200-period EMAs at 133.76-77.Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - A bearish continuation for the USD/JPY pair is supported by the upcoming bearish turn of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the diminishing buying pressure indicated by the Rate of Change (RoC) oscillator. The first support for the pair can be seen at the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 132.38. If this support level is broken, the pair could move towards the daily pivot at 132.04, followed by a further drop to the S1 pivot point at 131.46. In case this level is also breached, the USD/JPY pair would likely challenge the 131.00 level. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -