Daily Analysis For USD/JPY   21-04-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 21-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY
Economic Events: -
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:01(United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer ConfidenceHighGBP
00:30(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoYLowJPY
00:30(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumJPY
00:30(Japan) Inflation Rate MoMLowJPY
00:30(Japan) Inflation Rate YoYHighJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMILowJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMIMediumJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMIMediumJPY
05:00(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoMHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoYHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoMHighGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoYHighGBP
08:00(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIMediumEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Services PMIMediumEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Italy) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
09:30(Slovenia) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
09:30(Slovenia) PPI YoYLowEUR
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMILowGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIHighGBP
10:00(Euro Area) Government Debt to GDPMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Government Budget to GDPMediumEUR
10:10(Italy) Index-Linked BTP AuctionLowEUR
10:10(Italy) BTP Short TermLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices MoMLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Wholesale Prices YoYLowEUR
13:00(Kosovo) Balance of TradeLowEUR
13:30(Canada) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoMHighCAD
13:30(Canada) Retail Sales YoYHighCAD
13:30(Canada) Retail Sales MoMHighCAD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
15:30(Slovenia) Unemployment RateLowEUR
15:30(Euro Area) ECB Elderson SpeechLowEUR
18:00(El Salvador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig CountLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig CountLowUSD
18:45(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
21:35(United States) Fed Cook SpeechMediumUSD

Today's Scenario: - In the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair has managed to hold above the critical support level of 134.00, even with the release of Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that exceeded expectations. The annual national CPI for March showed an acceleration to 3.2%, which was higher than the consensus of 2.6% but lower than the previous release of 3.3%.
The slight decline in the headline CPI from the previous figures is due to the drop in oil prices in the global market. However, the core PCI, which eliminates the impact of volatile oil and food prices, has increased to 3.8%, surpassing the estimates of 3.4% and the previous release of 3.5%. This indicates a steady rise in retail demand, which is being supported by the ongoing ultra-loose monetary policy and stimulus measures aimed at boosting wages.

Buy Scenario: - To see a bullish session, the USD/JPY pair must surpass the pivot at 134.368 and aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 134.725 and the Thursday high of 134.871. A move towards 134.5 would indicate the bullish sentiment, but the USD/JPY requires support from US stats and Fed chatter for a successful breakout.
In case of a more extended rally, the bulls are expected to test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 135.228, with the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at 136.088. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - However, if the USD/JPY fails to surpass the pivot, the First Major Support Level (S1) at 133.865 will be in play. Except for a sell-off fueled by a risk-off sentiment, the USD/JPY pair should remain above sub-133.5. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at 133.508 should act as the critical level to limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at 132.648. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 133.84-R1 134.80
S2 133.45-R2 135.37
S3 132.88-R3 135.76


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