Published on Mar 21, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 21-03-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:30	(Australia) RBA Meeting Minutes	High	AUD
02:30	(New Zealand) Credit Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
06:25	(Switzerland) SNB 2022 Annual Report	Low	CHF
07:00	(European Union) New Car Registrations YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
09:30	(Slovenia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Current Conditions	Low	EUR
10:00	(Germany) ZEW Economic Sentiment Index	High	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(Canada) CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) CPI Median YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CAD
12:30	(Canada) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CAD
12:30	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
12:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales MoM	High	EUR
14:00	(United States) Existing Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(Slovenia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
15:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
15:30	(United States) 52-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
17:30	(United States) 20-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
20:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
21:00	(New Zealand) Westpac Consumer Confidence	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - During Tuesday's Asian session, USD/JPY is hovering around the 131.00 level and remains biased towards the bearish side. Despite a boost in US Treasury (UST) bond yields on Monday, the currency pair failed to make significant gains. This can be attributed to the struggles faced by the global banking sector, with many commercial banks experiencing difficulties in the past week.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair is expected to attract buyers at lower levels, and some traders may opt to reduce their bearish bets ahead of the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting, starting on Tuesday. The Fed's decision on Wednesday will have a significant impact on USD demand and could determine the direction of the major's next move.

If the currency pair recovers, it is likely to face resistance near the 132.00 level before encountering the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 132.60-132.65. If the pair sustains a move beyond this level, it could be lifted back towards the 133.00 round figure, and then towards the next relevant hurdle around the 133.50 region. This is followed closely by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at around the 133.80 zone, which should act as a pivotal point for the currency pair. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, the daily swing low near 130.55-130.50 provides support, and a break below this level could lead to further selling pressure, pushing the pair towards the psychological level of 130.00. Further downside momentum could extend towards intermediate support at 129.55-129.50, the 129.00 round figure, and the 128.50 horizontal zone. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -