Published on Apr 17, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 17-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Cyprus) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Orthodox Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:01	(Ireland) Construction PMI	Low	EUR
02:30	(China) PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement	Low	CNY
08:30	(Euro Area) ECB McCaul Speech	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) CPI	High	EUR
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(China) FDI (YTD) YoY	Medium	CNY
10:00	(Euro Area) ECB Tuominen Speech	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 12-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) EU Bond Auction	Low	EUR
10:45	(European Union) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Slovakia) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Wholesale Sales MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Foreign Securities Purchases	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Cunliffe Speech	Low	GBP
15:00	(United States) NAHB Housing Market Index	Medium	USD
16:00	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Net Long-term TIC Flows	Medium	USD
21:00	(United States) Overall Net Capital Flows	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - As Tokyo opens on Monday, USD/JPY is hovering around 133.80 after retreating from its intraday high. The Yen pair is struggling to extend gains from the previous day amid lackluster market sentiment and mixed catalysts. This week's top-tier data/events also present a challenge for USD/JPY traders, with a lack of major releases weighing on the pair.

Yesterday, USD/JPY saw its biggest gain in a week as upbeat US data pushed back expectations of a Federal Reserve policy pivot and rate cuts in 2023. However, US Retail Sales for March dropped by 1.0%, missing expectations of -0.4% and the prior reading of -0.2%. Industrial Production, on the other hand, grew by 0.4%, surpassing market forecasts of 0.2% and the previous reading. Additionally, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for April improved to 63.5 compared to analysts’ expectations of 62.0 and previous readings. Inflation expectations for the year ahead also rose from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while the five-year counterpart remained steady at 2.9% for the same month.

Buy Scenario: - If the currency pair breaks above the intraday high at 134.10, it may head towards March 06 low at 135.37, followed by March 10 high at 137.00. On the other hand, if the support at April 05 low of 130.63 is broken, the asset may head towards the round-level support of 130.00. If the currency pair continues to decline, it may test the support at March 24 low at 129.64. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - USD/JPY is currently near the horizontal resistance of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern, which was formed from the high of March 16 at 133.83. The upward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern originates from the low of March 24 at 129.64. The short-term trend of the currency pair is bullish, as it is confidently trading above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 133.38. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) also supports the bullish momentum, as it has moved into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -