Daily Analysis For USD/JPY   16-03-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 16-03-2023

USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY
Economic Events: -
GMTEventCurrency
03:35-(Japan) 20-Year JGB AuctionJPY
03:35-(Japan) 52-Week Bill AuctionJPY
04:30-(Japan) Industrial Production MoMJPY
04:30-(Japan) Industrial Production YoYJPY
04:30-(Japan) Capacity Utilization MoMJPY
12:30-(United States) Building Permits MoMUSD
12:30-(United States) Housing Starts MoMUSD
12:30-(United States) Building PermitsUSD
12:30-(United States) Housing StartsUSD
12:30-(United States) Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing IndexUSD
12:30-(United States) Initial Jobless ClaimsUSD
12:30-(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week AverageUSD
12:30-(United States) Continuing Jobless ClaimsUSD
12:30-(United States) Export Prices MoMUSD
12:30-(United States) Import Prices MoMUSD

Today's Scenario: - During early Thursday trading, USD/JPY continued its sell-off, dropping towards 132.00 for the second consecutive day. Despite the US Treasury bond yields remaining unchanged and global policymakers working to ease concerns related to the Credit Suisse crisis, the pair appears to be ignoring these factors.

Buy Scenario: - As UST bond yields continue to fall, USD/JPY is likely to face further pressure, and a break below the 50-DMA is highly possible. In such a scenario, the pair may head towards the key psychological level of 132.00, which is just above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Any potential upside gains for the pair are expected to be limited around the descending trendline starting from the 138.00 mark or at the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the 21-DMA. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - Over the past three days, USD/JPY has been consolidating between the 21- and 50-day moving averages (DMAs) due to falling US Treasury (UST) yields. The pair has found support at around 132.35, which was a resistance level that has now become a support level. The support zone between 132.00 and 132.35 is considered important as it combines the 50-DMA with a 50% Fibonacci level, starting from the daily low of 127.21 on the daily timeframe.
The lower lows seen on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate that USD/JPY may face further downside pressure. The fading UST bond yields are dampening the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hiking outlook, especially in light of Credit Suisse bank's concerns. Technically and fundamentally, the downside bias for the pair seems relatively strong. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 134.52-R1 135.21
S2 134.10-R2 135.48
S3 133.83-R3 135.91

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