Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 14-04-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 14-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis
USD/JPY
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY
Economic Events: -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
01:00(Cyprus) Good FridayNoneEUR
01:00(Greece) Orthodox Good FridayNoneEUR
01:00(Montenegro) Good FridayNoneEUR
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
06:00(Finland) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
06:00(Finland) GDP YoYLowEUR
06:00(Finland) CPILowEUR
07:00(Germany) Wholesale Prices YoYMediumEUR
07:00(Germany) Wholesale Prices MoMMediumEUR
07:30(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices MoMLowCHF
07:30(Switzerland) Producer & Import Prices YoYLowCHF
07:45(France) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
07:45(France) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
07:45(France) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(China) FDI (YTD) YoYMediumCNY
08:00(Slovakia) CPILowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Slovakia) Core Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) CPIHighEUR
08:00(Spain) Core Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Spain) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
09:00(France) IEA Oil Market ReportMediumEUR
10:30(Belgium) Construction Output YoYLowEUR
11:00(Ireland) Balance of TradeLowEUR
13:30(Canada) Manufacturing Sales MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) New Motor Vehicle SalesLowCAD
13:30(United States) Import Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Export Prices YoYLowUSD
13:30(United States) Import Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Export Prices MoMMediumUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales MoMHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales YoYHighUSD
13:30(United States) Retail Sales Ex Autos MoMHighUSD
13:45(United States) Fed Waller SpeechMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production MoMLowUSD
14:15(United States) Capacity UtilizationLowUSD
14:15(United States) Manufacturing Production YoYLowUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production YoYMediumUSD
14:15(United States) Industrial Production MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) Business Inventories MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer SentimentHighUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Consumer ExpectationsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan Current ConditionsLowUSD
15:00(United States) Michigan 5 Year Inflation ExpectationsLowUSD
16:30(United Kingdom) BoE Tenreyro SpeechMediumGBP
18:00(El Salvador) Inflation Rate MoMLowUSD
18:00(El Salvador) Inflation Rate YoYLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig CountLowUSD
18:00(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig CountLowUSD
19:15(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel SpeechLowEUR
Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair is struggling to gain momentum despite bouncing back from the 132.00 level yesterday. It is currently trading around the mid-132.00s and is not showing any significant movement. The US Dollar (USD) is experiencing selling pressure due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is close to ending its rate-hiking cycle. This sentiment was strengthened by the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which showed a significant drop in inflation at the wholesale level in March. This followed a softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report earlier this week, which suggested that inflation is not yet a concern for the Fed. As a result, the Fed may pause its policy tightening, which is weighing on the USD.
Buy Scenario: - On the upside, the immediate resistance level is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 132.85, followed by the 200-SMA hurdle of 133.35. However, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 133.85 and the top line of the bullish trend channel at 134.60 could challenge the USD/JPY buyers.
Further resistance could be encountered at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of around 134.80, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, and tops marked during March 10-15, close to 135.10-15. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.
Sell Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair continues to decline for the third consecutive day on Friday, currently trading near 132.40, after failing to extend its rebound from the previous day beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its fall in March. The MACD signals and RSI (14) remain bearish, suggesting further downside potential.
The pair is expected to test the 100-SMA support level around 132.15, with limited further weakness expected due to a three-week bullish trend channel that could provide support around 131.40.
If the pair breaks below the 131.40 support level, it could target the monthly low near 130.60 and the psychological level of 130.00 before heading towards the yearly low of 129.65, marked in March. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.
Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 131.93-R1 133.30
S2 131.29-R2 134.03
S3 130.57-R3 134.67

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