Published on Apr 13, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 13-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) RICS House Price Balance	Low	GBP
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
02:30	(Australia) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Employment Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Unemployment Rate	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Participation Rate	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
05:30	(Netherlands) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP MoM	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP 3-Month Avg	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Manufacturing Production MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Construction Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Balance of Trade	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) GDP YoY	Low	GBP
08:00	(Lithuania) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:40	(Spain) Index-Linked Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 3-Year Bonos Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 10-Year Obligacion Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Montenegro) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 3-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 7-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 21-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 14-Year BTP Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) CPI	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Current Account	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) CPI	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Economic Activity YoY	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Private Consumption YoY	Low	EUR
13:30	(United Kingdom) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker	Low	GBP
13:30	(United States) Core PPI MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI YoY	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) PPI MoM	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:45	(Germany) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(Ecuador) Balance of Trade	Low	USD
14:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
14:00	(Canada) BoC Gov Macklem Speech	Medium	CAD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 30-Year Bond Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(Germany) Bundesbank Nagel Speech	Low	EUR
23:30	(New Zealand) Business NZ PMI	Medium	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Visitor Arrivals YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - During early Thursday trading hours in Europe, USD/JPY remains relatively steady around 133.20, with slight movements reflecting a recovery in US Treasury bond yields and positive sentiment towards Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke at a G7 meeting in Washington, reaffirming the bank's commitment to maintain easy-money policy until price targets are met and sustained. Ueda also acknowledged that Japan's consumer inflation currently stands at around 3% but is likely to slow in the future.

Buy Scenario: - As yields recover, the USDJPY has risen and is approaching its 100 day moving average at 133.321. The current price is trading at 133.17.

The price action has been confined between the 100 hour moving average below and the 100 day moving average above. Traders are monitoring the range and looking for the next movement. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - Following the release of US CPI data, the USDJPY initially decreased as yields dropped, but has since rebounded and is currently trading at 4.014%. The 10 year yield also dropped but has recovered slightly to 3.421% down by 1.3 basis points.

Initially, the USDJPY fell below its 100 day moving average at 133.321 and dropped to a low of 132.725, which was just below the rising 100 hour moving average at the time at 132.74. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -