Published on Apr 11, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 11-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Index	High	AUD
01:30	(Australia) Westpac Consumer Confidence Change	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) NAB Business Confidence	High	AUD
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	CNY
02:30	(China) Inflation Rate YoY	High	CNY
02:30	(China) PPI YoY	Medium	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 5-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(China) Vehicle Sales YoY	Low	CNY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Japan) Machine Tool Orders YoY	Low	JPY
08:00	(Slovakia) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(China) Outstanding Loan Growth YoY	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) M2 Money Supply YoY	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) New Yuan Loans	Low	CNY
09:00	(China) Total Social Financing	Low	CNY
09:30	(Slovenia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Retail Sales MoM	High	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) Retail Sales YoY	High	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
10:30	(Belgium) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
16:00	(Kosovo) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
17:00	(United States) WASDE Report	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
21:00	(United States) Fed Harker Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - During the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair underwent a correction and dropped below the critical support level of 133.50. This came after a significant upward move that took the pair near 133.87. The correction in the asset is linked to a correction in the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Buy Scenario: - To target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 134.360, the USD/JPY pair needs to avoid falling through the 133.096 pivot. A bullish session could be indicated if the pair manages to move through the Monday high of 133.870, but this would require support from Fed chatter for an extended USD/JPY breakout.

If the rally continues, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 135.135. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) is located at 137.174. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, falling through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at 132.321 into play. However, unless there is a significant sell-off of the dollar, the USD/JPY pair should avoid dropping below the level of 132 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at 131.057. The Third Major Support Level (S3) is located at 129.018. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -