Published on May 10, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 10-05-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Mothers' Day	None	USD
05:30	(Netherlands) Manufacturing Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Coincident Index	Low	JPY
06:00	(Japan) Leading Economic Index	Low	JPY
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	EUR
07:00	(Germany) CPI	High	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Italy) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Belgium) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction	Low	GBP
10:10	(Italy) 12-Month BOT Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 30-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Building Permits MoM	Low	CAD
13:30	(United States) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Inflation Rate YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Core Inflation Rate YoY	High	USD
13:30	(United States) CPI	High	USD
13:30	(United States) CPI s.a	High	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 2-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
18:00	(United States) 10-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
19:00	(United States) Monthly Budget Statement	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Food Inflation YoY	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY currency pair has retreated to 135.15 after registering a three-day winning streak, heading into Wednesday's European session. As a result, the Yen pair has eased within a one-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern.

Buy Scenario: - On the upside, multiple hurdles near 135.50 may impede the USD/JPY recovery. A break of this level could direct the pair towards the top line of the wedge, near 135.90. If the pair remains firm past this level, the 136.00 round figure may act as an extra check for the bulls before pushing them for another battle with the 138.00 hurdle, comprising tops marked in March and May 2023. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair is currently retreating to 135.15, following a three-day winning streak. It is now within a one-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern.

The MACD signals are sluggish, and the RSI (14) line is steady, indicating a further easing of the USD/JPY pair. However, a clear downside break of the wedge's lower line, near 135.00, will confirm the wedge formation and suggest a theoretical fall toward the 133.00 round figure.

The 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and an upward-sloping support line from April 13, at around 134.80 and 134.00, respectively, can provide support to the USD/JPY bears. The pair's run-up after crossing the 200-SMA level during mid-April highlights the 133.65 level as a major challenge for the bears. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -