Published on Apr 10, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 10-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Current Account	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Australia) Easter Monday	None	AUD
01:00	(Austria) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Belgium) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Euro Area) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Finland) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(France) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Germany) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Ireland) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Italy) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Latvia) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Lithuania) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Malta) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(Netherlands) Easter Monday	None	EUR
01:00	(New Zealand) Easter Monday	None	NZD
01:00	(Switzerland) Easter Monday	None	CHF
01:00	(United Kingdom) Easter Monday	None	GBP
06:00	(Estonia) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) CPI	Low	EUR
06:00	(Japan) Consumer Confidence	High	JPY
07:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Current	Low	JPY
07:00	(Japan) Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	Low	JPY
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Greece) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Malta) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:30	(Cyprus) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoM	Low	USD
16:00	(United States) Consumer Inflation Expectations	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:15	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair is gaining upward momentum towards 133.00 in the Asian trading session, despite weak US Treasury yields and a lack of market participants due to the holiday. Additionally, tensions between the US and China over Taiwan have resurfaced, but have not affected the pair's momentum.

Investors are closely watching the upcoming debut speech of the new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, as it may highlight a policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Buy Scenario: - USD/JPY buyers have been dominating the market for the third day in a row. The pair has broken through a one-month-old descending resistance line near 132.65, which justifies the upward break of the 21-day moving average for the first time in a month. The bullish signals from the MACD and RSI (14) also suggest a gradual run-up of the pair.

However, the USD/JPY buyers may face a short-term key challenge at the 50-day moving average hurdle around 133.20. If they manage to pass that, a run-up towards a seven-week-old horizontal resistance area around 135.20 is possible. If the pair remains firm beyond that level, it may target the Year-To-Date (YTD) high of 137.91 and the psychological level of 140.00. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the downside, the pair's pullback remains elusive unless it falls below an upward-sloping support line from January 16, around 131.00 at the time of writing. Even if the bears manage to break through the 131.00 trend line support, the previous monthly low of around 129.65 could act as an additional filter before directing the pair towards the early 2023 bottom of 127.21. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -