Published on May 9, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 09-05-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:01	(United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY	High	GBP
00:30	(Japan) Overtime Pay YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Average Cash Earnings YoY	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending MoM	Low	JPY
00:30	(Japan) Household Spending YoY	Low	JPY
01:00	(Euro Area) Anniversary of Robert Schumans Declaration	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Europe Day	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
04:00	(China) Exports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Imports YoY	Medium	CNY
04:00	(China) Balance of Trade	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
07:00	(Lithuania) CPI	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:45	(France) Current Account	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Balance of Trade	Medium	EUR
07:45	(France) Exports	Low	EUR
07:45	(France) Imports	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 6-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
09:40	(Spain) 12-Month Letras Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 5-Year Bobl Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Australia) 2023-24 Federal Budget	Medium	AUD
11:00	(United Kingdom) BBA Mortgage Rate	Low	GBP
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(United States) NFIB Business Optimism Index	Low	USD
13:30	(United States) Fed Jefferson Speech	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs	Low	USD
17:05	(United States) Fed Williams Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 3-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(Euro Area) ECB Schnabel Speech	Low	EUR
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair has risen for the third consecutive day, reaching an intraday high near 135.30 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda defends the easy money policy during the Tokyo market opening on Tuesday. The comments from Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, along with stronger US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar, have also contributed to the strength of this risk-sensitive currency pair.

BoJ Governor Ueda stated that the upcoming review of monetary policy won't have any preconceived ideas about specific policy moves. He added that the BoJ will assess financial and price developments and take necessary policy action at each meeting, even while conducting the review. Meanwhile, Japan's Finance Minister Suzuki confirmed that the country's financial system remains stable.

Buy Scenario: - If the pair manages to break above the 200-hour moving average (HMA) located around 135.35, there are fewer obstacles towards the north, except for the round figure of 136.00.

Afterwards, multiple resistance levels around the 137.90-138.00 region will be crucial to observe for buyers, as a sustained breach of these levels could push the USD/JPY pair towards the psychological level of 140.00.

Overall, even if a short-term pullback occurs, USD/JPY appears to be on the buyers' radar. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - If the USD/JPY pair drops below the key support level of 137.75, the previous weekly low of approximately 133.50 becomes important, as it could result in a decline towards the bottom of April, which is around 130.65. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -