Published on Apr 6, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 06-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY
01:00	(El Salvador) Maundy Thursday	None	USD
01:00	(Portugal) Maundy Thursday	None	EUR
02:30	(Australia) Exports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Imports MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Balance of Trade	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) RBA Financial Stability Review	Medium	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Composite PMI	Low	CNY
02:45	(China) Caixin Services PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
04:35	(Japan) 30-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
06:00	(Estonia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
06:45	(Switzerland) Unemployment Rate	High	CHF
07:00	(Finland) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Industrial Production MoM	Medium	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Halifax House Price Index YoY	Medium	GBP
08:00	(Austria) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(Austria) Wholesale Prices YoY	Low	EUR
08:00	(Slovakia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
08:00	(Switzerland) Foreign Exchange Reserves	Low	CHF
08:30	(Euro Area) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(France) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
08:30	(Germany) S&P Global Construction PMI	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Italy) S&P Global Construction PMI	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI	Medium	GBP
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Construction Output YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) 10-Year OAT Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Challenger Job Cuts	Low	USD
13:30	(Canada) Average Hourly Wages YoY	Low	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Part Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Full Time Employment Chg	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Participation Rate	Medium	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Employment Change	High	CAD
13:30	(Canada) Unemployment Rate	High	CAD
13:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
15:00	(Canada) Ivey PMI s.a	High	CAD
15:00	(Ecuador) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Total Vehicle Sales	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Bullard Speech	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY currency pair is currently consolidating intraday losses around 131.20 as the US Dollar defends its rebound from a two-month low on the previous day heading into Thursday's European trading session. Despite this, the Yen pair is still on track to reverse the gains from last week, which was the first in five weeks, due to the downbeat Treasury bond yields.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair is currently defending against further downside pressure, having dropped to near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (measured from the low of March 24 at 129.64 to the high of April 03 at 133.76) at 131.22 on an hourly basis. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 131.30 is still acting as a barrier for the US Dollar bulls.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is attempting to climb into the range of 40.00-60.00.

If the asset manages to break above the immediate resistance at 131.50, it could drive the US Dollar bulls towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 132.19, followed by the high of April 04 at 133.17. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the pair breaks below the low of April 05 at 130.63, it would push the asset towards the round-level support of 130.00. Breaking below the support level of 130.00 would expose the asset to the low of March 24 at 129.64. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -