Published on Apr 4, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 04-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
04:35	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
05:30	(Australia) RBA Interest Rate Decision	High	AUD
07:00	(Germany) Imports MoM s.a	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Exports MoM s.a	Low	EUR
07:00	(Germany) Balance of Trade s.a	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Unemployment Change	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Consumer Expectations Survey	Medium	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
10:00	(Euro Area) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(France) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) Index-Linked Bund Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index Current	Low	USD
10:30	(Germany) 30-Year Bund/â‚¬i Auction	Low	EUR
11:30	(Portugal) Budget Balance	Low	EUR
13:30	(Canada) Building Permits MoM	Low	CAD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Quits	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) JOLTs Job Openings	High	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders ex Transportation	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Factory Orders MoM	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	Medium	USD
15:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Pill Speech	Medium	GBP
16:00	(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price Index	Low	NZD
17:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
17:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record	Medium	GBP
18:30	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(United States) Fed Mester Speech	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY currency pair is hovering near its intraday high and appears poised to test the resistance level at 133.00 early on Tuesday. The pair is recovering from its losses from the previous day, following the rebound of the US Dollar, as investors adopt a more cautious approach to risk sentiment. The focus now shifts to mid-tier US economic data, which may impact the pair's movement.

Buy Scenario: - During early Tuesday, USD/JPY is grinding near an intraday high of around 132.80, bouncing back from a convergence of the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and one-week-old ascending trend line. This reversal follows the downbeat start of the week, as the Yen pair tracks the recovery in the US Dollar and risk sentiment turns cautious.

However, the bearish MACD signals and the failure to cross the 200-SMA around 134.00 challenge the bulls. Even if the Yen pair manages to break above 134.00, a six-week-long horizontal resistance area near 135.10 could limit any further upside moves. Additional resistance levels include 135.40 and 136.00 round figures.

In the event that the quote remains firmer past 136.00, there may be a chance to witness a fresh Year-To-Date high, currently around 137.90. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - However, a clear break of the 132.30 support confluence becomes necessary for the USD/JPY bear's return.

If this occurs, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the USD/JPY pair’s February-March upside and 50-SMA, near 131.80, can act as the last defense of the buyers. Following that, the 130.00 round figure and the previous monthly low near 129.65 may gain the USD/JPY seller’s attention.

Overall, while USD/JPY is likely to extend the latest rebound, the recovery moves have limited upside room to cheer. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -