Published on Apr 3, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 03-04-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Small Manufacturers Index	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large All Industry Capex	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	High	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook	Low	JPY
00:50	(Japan) Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook	Low	JPY
01:01	(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:15	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Home Loans MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Investment Lending for Homes	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Private House Approvals MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits MoM	Medium	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
02:30	(Australia) Building Permits YoY	Low	AUD
02:45	(China) Caixin Manufacturing PMI	High	CNY
04:35	(Japan) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	JPY
06:00	(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMI	Low	EUR
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
07:30	(Switzerland) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	CHF
07:30	(Switzerland) CPI	High	CHF
07:45	(France) Budget Balance	Low	EUR
08:00	(Spain) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
08:15	(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployment Rate	High	EUR
08:30	(Austria) Unemployed Persons	Low	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMI	High	CHF
08:45	(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
08:50	(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Medium	EUR
08:55	(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Germany) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR

09:00	(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	EUR
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP

09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
09:30	(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI	High	GBP
10:00	(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(Italy) New Car Registrations YoY	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 3-Month Bubill Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Portugal) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Spain) New Car Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Cyprus) Current Account	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 3-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 12-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:00	(France) 6-Month BTF Auction	Low	EUR
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:30	(Canada) BoC Business Outlook Survey	Medium	CAD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
21:15	(United States) Fed Cook Speech	Medium	USD
23:00	(New Zealand) NZIER Capacity Utilization	Low	NZD
23:00	(New Zealand) NZIER Business Confidence	Low	NZD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair has gained 0.2%, rising from a low of 132.98 to a high of 133.38. However, the pair has encountered resistance from the previous week's high and has failed to break through, leading to selling pressure in Tokyo and putting the pair back under pressure.

Buy Scenario: - To regain its upward momentum, the USD/JPY pair must stay above the key pivot point of 132.965 and aim for the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at 133.357 and the Friday high of 133.594. If the pair returns to 133.50, it would indicate a bullish USD/JPY session. However, a breakout will require support from positive PMIs from China and US economic indicators.

If the bullish momentum continues, the pair could test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at 133.985 and the resistance level at 134. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) lies at 135.005. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the pair falls below the pivot point, it may trigger selling pressure, and the First Major Support Level (S1) at 132.337 may come into play. However, unless there is a significant dollar sell-off, the USD/JPY pair should avoid falling below the 131.5 level. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at 131.945 is expected to limit the downside, while the Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at 130.925. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -