Daily Analysis For USD/JPY   02-05-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 02-05-2023

USD/JPY Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY
Economic Events: -
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Montenegro) Labor dayNoneEUR
01:01(Ireland) AIB Manufacturing PMILowEUR
04:35(Japan) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowJPY
05:30(Australia) RBA Interest Rate DecisionHighAUD
05:30(Netherlands) Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
05:30(Netherlands) Business ConfidenceLowEUR
06:00(Netherlands) NEVI Manufacturing PMILowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices YoYMediumGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Nationwide Housing Prices MoMMediumGBP
07:00(Germany) Retail Sales MoMHighEUR
07:00(Germany) Retail Sales YoYHighEUR
07:00(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate YoYLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) GDP Growth Rate QoQLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
08:00(Austria) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
08:00(Switzerland) Consumer ConfidenceHighCHF
08:15(Spain) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
08:30(Austria) Unemployment RateHighEUR
08:30(Austria) Unemployed PersonsLowEUR
08:30(Switzerland) procure.ch Manufacturing PMIHighCHF
08:45(Italy) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
08:50(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIMediumEUR
08:55(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Loans to Households YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) M3 Money Supply YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Loans to Companies YoYLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Greece) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIHighGBP
09:30(United States) LMI Logistics Managers Index CurrentLowUSD
10:00(Cyprus) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Core Inflation Rate YoYMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Inflation Rate YoYHighEUR
10:00(Euro Area) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
10:00(Euro Area) CPIHighEUR
10:00(Italy) CPIHighEUR
10:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate YoYLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Harmonised Inflation Rate MoMLowEUR
10:00(Italy) Inflation Rate MoMMediumEUR
10:00(Italy) Inflation Rate YoYHighEUR
10:30(Germany) Index-Linked Bund AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Retail Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Portugal) Retail Sales MoMLowEUR
11:00(Spain) New Car Sales YoYLowEUR
11:00(Greece) Total Credit YoYLowEUR
11:00(Italy) PPI MoMLowEUR
11:00(Italy) PPI YoYLowEUR
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(France) 3-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 12-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
14:00(France) 6-Month BTF AuctionLowEUR
15:00(United States) JOLTs Job QuitsLowUSD
15:00(United States) JOLTs Job OpeningsHighUSD
15:00(United States) Factory Orders ex TransportationLowUSD
15:00(United States) Factory Orders MoMMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Total Vehicle SalesLowUSD
16:00(New Zealand) Global Dairy Trade Price IndexLowNZD
17:00(Belgium) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
17:00(Italy) New Car Registrations YoYLowEUR
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD
22:00(New Zealand) RBNZ Financial Stability ReportMediumNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Participation RateLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index YoYLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Labour Costs Index QoQLowNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Employment Change QoQHighNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Unemployment RateHighNZD

Today's Scenario: - The USD/JPY currency pair, which hit a two-month high, dropped to 137.30 in early trading on Tuesday, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of crucial US data and events. The full market has returned after Monday's holiday in major bourses.
The recent strengthening of US Treasury bond yields and the positive news surrounding the First Republic Bank may be supporting the pair's upside. However, concerns about the expiration of the US debt ceiling have affected the quote, even as the Bank of Japan's doves contrast with the hawkish Federal Reserve's bets to support the USD/JPY bulls.

Buy Scenario: - When analyzing the daily chart, the USD/JPY pair appears to be in an upward trend following last Friday's price action, which saw gains of more than 1.70%. As the pair continued to rise, it surpassed several resistance levels, including the 20-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) at 134.14 and 134.12, respectively. Furthermore, the USD/JPY left behind the 200-day EMA at 133.79, as buyers remained optimistic about pushing prices towards the high of last year at 151.94.
If the USD/JPY manages to surpass the cycle high of November 30 at 138.17, it would open up the possibility of reaching the daily high of November 21 at 142.25. A breach of the latter would expose the 145.00 level. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, if the USD/JPY falls below 137.00, it could signal a downward correction. If this occurs, the following support level would be the high of April 28 at 136.56. Further downside risks could emerge below this level, extending towards the swing high of April 19 at 135.13, followed closely by the 20-day EMA at 134.14, and then the 100-day EMA. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 136.60-R1 137.96
S2 135.71-R2 138.43
S3 135.24-R3 139.32


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