Published on Mar 2, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 02-03-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events : -

GMT		Event	Currency
03:35	-	(Japan) 10-Year JGB Auction	JPY
05:00	-	(Japan) Consumer Confidence	JPY
13:30	-	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	USD
13:30	-	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	USD
13:30	-	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	USD
13:30	-	(United States) Unit Labour Costs QoQ	USD
13:30	-	(United States) Nonfarm Productivity QoQ	USD
21:00	-	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	USD
23:30	-	(Japan) Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	JPY
23:30	-	(Japan) Tokyo CPI YoY	JPY
23:30	-	(Japan) Tokyo Core CPI YoY	JPY
23:30	-	(Japan) Jobs/applications ratio	JPY
23:30	-	(Japan) Unemployment Rate	JPY

Today's Scenario : - The USD/JPY pair is currently facing difficulties in overcoming the previous two-day inactivity, as bulls maintain control around the 136.30 level during early Thursday trading. Despite this, the Yen pair has posted modest gains after bouncing back from the 50-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a horizontal support zone that has been in place for the past two weeks.

Buy Scenario : - The USD/JPY pair is facing challenges in breaking through the previous two-day period of inactivity, as bulls maintain control around the 136.30 level during early Thursday trading. The Yen pair has recorded slight gains after bouncing back from the 50-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a horizontal support zone that has been in place for the past two weeks. Furthermore, the MACD signals are also indicating a reduction in bearish bias, which favors buyers of the USD/JPY pair.

Given this scenario, the risk-barometer pair is well-positioned to test an upward-sloping resistance line that emerged in early February, which is close to the 137.30 level at the time of writing. It is important to note that the weekly top around 136.90 and the round figure of 137.00 may serve as immediate resistances for the USD/JPY bulls to keep an eye on.

If the USD/JPY pair remains strong beyond 137.30, the late 2022 peak around 138.20 could come back into play. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - The USD/JPY pair is struggling to break free from the previous two-day inaction, as bulls continue to hold onto the reins around 136.30 in early Thursday trading. The pair has gained mildly after bouncing off the 50-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a two-week-old horizontal support zone.

The USD/JPY buyers are benefiting not only from a sustained recovery from key technical levels but also from the MACD's easing bearish bias. As a result, the pair is well-positioned to test an upward-sloping resistance line from early February, near 137.30 at the moment.

However, it's important to note that the weekly top around 136.90 and the 137.00 round figure could provide immediate resistance for USD/JPY bulls to monitor. If the pair remains firm beyond 137.30, the late 2022 peak around 138.20 may come back into play.

On the other hand, the 50-SMA level of around 135.40 serves as immediate support for the Yen pair, followed by the aforementioned two-week horizontal support zone at around 135.05-25. It's worth noting that the 100-SMA level of 134.00 and the February 20 swing low around 133.95 could act as the last line of defense for USD/JPY buyers. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level : -