Published on May 1, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 01-05-2023

USD/JPY Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY

Economic Events: -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
01:00	(Austria) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Belgium) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(China) May Day	None	CNY
01:00	(Cyprus) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ecuador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(El Salvador) Labor Day	None	USD
01:00	(Estonia) Spring Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Euro Area) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Finland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(France) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Germany) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Greece) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Ireland) May Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Italy) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Latvia) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Lithuania) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Luxembourg) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Malta) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Montenegro) Labor day	None	EUR
01:00	(Portugal) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(Spain) Labor Day	None	EUR
01:00	(United Kingdom) May Day Bank Holiday	None	GBP
01:30	(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	Medium	JPY
02:00	(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM	Low	AUD
02:30	(Australia) ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM	Low	AUD
06:00	(Japan) Consumer Confidence	High	JPY
07:30	(Australia) Commodity Prices YoY	Low	AUD
09:00	(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF Sentiment	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD Sentiment	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY Sentiment	Medium	JPY
09:00	(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD Sentiment	Medium	EUR
09:00	(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD Sentiment	Medium	GBP
09:00	(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD Sentiment	Medium	CAD
09:00	(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD Sentiment	Medium	NZD
14:30	(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	CAD
14:45	(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Prices	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing New Orders	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing Employment	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Construction Spending MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMI	High	USD
16:30	(United States) 3-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 6-Month Bill Auction	Low	USD

Today's Scenario: - USD/JPY is currently testing the 200-day moving average (DMA) resistance, as buyers aim to push the currency pair towards a two-month high near 137.00. The Yen pair is rising for the third day in a row, supported by the previous day’s upward movement that broke a downward-sloping resistance line from November 2021, which is now acting as an immediate support level. Additionally, the bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator are further supporting the USD/JPY bulls.

Buy Scenario: - USD/JPY has been rising for three consecutive days, reaching a two-month high near 137.00 during early Monday trading. However, the 200-day moving average level around the 137.00 round figure and the overbought RSI (14) line are posing a challenge for the USD/JPY bulls.

Even if the Yen pair manages to break above the 137.00 hurdle, a crucial horizontal region between 137.90 and 138.20, marked by multiple levels since early December 2022, will be important for pair buyers to watch.

If the quote manages to remain above 138.20, the USD/JPY could rally and target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn, around 142.55. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, a pullback for USD/JPY is unlikely unless the quote drops below the resistance-turned-support line around 135.85. Even if the Yen pair drops below 135.85, the mid-April swing high around 135.15 and the five-week-old ascending support line near 133.70 could offer support to the USD/JPY bears.

Overall, the USD/JPY is likely to remain firm, but the quote's additional rise depends on a breakout above 138.20. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -