Daily Analysis For USD/JPY   01-05-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/JPY 01-05-2023

USD/JPY Analysis
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/JPY
Economic Events: -
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMIHighAUD
01:00(Austria) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Belgium) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(China) May DayNoneCNY
01:00(Cyprus) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Ecuador) Labor DayNoneUSD
01:00(El Salvador) Labor DayNoneUSD
01:00(Estonia) Spring DayNoneEUR
01:00(Euro Area) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Finland) May DayNoneEUR
01:00(France) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Germany) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Greece) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Ireland) May DayNoneEUR
01:00(Italy) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Latvia) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Lithuania) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Luxembourg) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Malta) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Montenegro) Labor dayNoneEUR
01:00(Portugal) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(Spain) Labor DayNoneEUR
01:00(United Kingdom) May Day Bank HolidayNoneGBP
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMIMediumJPY
02:00(Australia) TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoMLowAUD
02:30(Australia) ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoMLowAUD
06:00(Japan) Consumer ConfidenceHighJPY
07:30(Australia) Commodity Prices YoYLowAUD
09:00(Switzerland) Myfxbook USDCHF SentimentMediumCHF
09:00(Australia) Myfxbook AUDUSD SentimentMediumAUD
09:00(Japan) Myfxbook USDJPY SentimentMediumJPY
09:00(European Union) Myfxbook EURUSD SentimentMediumEUR
09:00(United Kingdom) Myfxbook GBPUSD SentimentMediumGBP
09:00(Canada) Myfxbook USDCAD SentimentMediumCAD
09:00(New Zealand) Myfxbook NZDUSD SentimentMediumNZD
14:30(Canada) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighCAD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Manufacturing PricesLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Manufacturing New OrdersLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Manufacturing EmploymentMediumUSD
15:00(United States) Construction Spending MoMLowUSD
15:00(United States) ISM Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
16:30(United States) 3-Month Bill AuctionLowUSD
16:30(United States) 6-Month Bill AuctionLowUSD

Today's Scenario: - USD/JPY is currently testing the 200-day moving average (DMA) resistance, as buyers aim to push the currency pair towards a two-month high near 137.00. The Yen pair is rising for the third day in a row, supported by the previous day’s upward movement that broke a downward-sloping resistance line from November 2021, which is now acting as an immediate support level. Additionally, the bullish signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator are further supporting the USD/JPY bulls.

Buy Scenario: - USD/JPY has been rising for three consecutive days, reaching a two-month high near 137.00 during early Monday trading. However, the 200-day moving average level around the 137.00 round figure and the overbought RSI (14) line are posing a challenge for the USD/JPY bulls.
Even if the Yen pair manages to break above the 137.00 hurdle, a crucial horizontal region between 137.90 and 138.20, marked by multiple levels since early December 2022, will be important for pair buyers to watch.
If the quote manages to remain above 138.20, the USD/JPY could rally and target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the October 2022 to January 2023 downturn, around 142.55. Till we did not advise to buy in USD/JPY.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, a pullback for USD/JPY is unlikely unless the quote drops below the resistance-turned-support line around 135.85. Even if the Yen pair drops below 135.85, the mid-April swing high around 135.15 and the five-week-old ascending support line near 133.70 could offer support to the USD/JPY bears.
Overall, the USD/JPY is likely to remain firm, but the quote's additional rise depends on a breakout above 138.20. Till we did not advise to sell the position in USD/JPY.

Support and Resistance Level: -
S1 134.25-R1 137.47
S2 132.19-R2 138.62
S3 131.04-R3 140.68


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