Published on Mar 28, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 28-03-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
1:30	(Australia) Retail Sales MoM	High	AUD
4:35	(Japan) 40-Year JGB Auction	Low	JPY
5:15	(Australia) RBA Connolly Speech	Medium	AUD
7:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
7:00	(Lithuania) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
7:45	(France) Business Climate Indicator	Low	EUR
7:45	(France) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:00	(Italy) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:00	(Italy) Business Confidence	Medium	EUR
9:35	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Medium	EUR
9:45	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
10:10	(Italy) Index-Linked BTP Auction	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) BTP Short Term	Low	EUR
10:10	(Italy) 10-Year BTP Short Term Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Ireland) Retail Sales MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
13:30	(United States) Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM	Medium	USD
13:30	(United States) Goods Trade Balance	High	USD
13:30	(United States) Wholesale Inventories MoM	Medium	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index MoM	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) CB Consumer Confidence	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Fed Barr Testimony	Medium	USD

Today's Scenario: - During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair is showing weakness and is at risk of breaking below the immediate support level of 0.9150. The Swiss franc is gaining strength as the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping its monetary policy unchanged increases.

Meanwhile, the S&P500 futures have continued to rise following a positive day on Monday, as there are hopes that the US banking system will recover sooner than expected and that the Fed will not increase interest rates, which is boosting overall market sentiment.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair is facing resistance from a falling trend line that has been in place for a week and is currently around 0.9185. The next resistance level is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s fall from February to March, which is near 0.9205.

If the pair manages to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, it will face further resistance from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the 100-SMA, and a bearish trend line that has been in place for three weeks, which all converge around 0.9250. Additionally, the 200-SMA, located at 0.9280, will also act as a significant resistance level.

Overall, even though the path to the downside may be bumpy, the USD/CHF pair is expected to continue its downward trajectory. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair is trading at around 0.9150 and is experiencing a bearish trend, supported by the bear cross on the MACD indicator and downbeat RSI (14) line. The failure of significant Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) during the mid-month uptrend adds strength to the bearish sentiment for the USD/CHF. However, a two-week-old ascending trend line around 0.9135 is limiting the downside for the USD/CHF pair. Additionally, an upward-sloping support line from early February, located around 0.9110, is crucial for the bears to break as it could lead to further weakness towards challenging the yearly low of around 0.9060 marked in February. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -