Published on Apr 25, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 25-04-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
01:00	(Australia) ANZAC Day	None	AUD
01:00	(Italy) Liberation Day	None	EUR
01:00	(New Zealand) ANZAC Day	None	NZD
01:00	(Portugal) Liberty Day	None	EUR
03:45	(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	USD
03:45	(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
07:00	(Switzerland) Balance of Trade	Medium	CHF
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks	Low	GBP
08:00	(Spain) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
09:00	(Euro Area) ECB Enria Speech	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Tourist Arrivals YoY	Low	EUR
10:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Member Broadbent	Low	GBP
10:30	(Germany) 2-Year Schatz Auction	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI MoM	Low	EUR
11:00	(Latvia) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
11:00	(Luxembourg) Balance of Trade	Low	EUR
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends Orders	Medium	GBP
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Business Optimism Index	Medium	GBP
13:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
13:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
13:55	(United States) Redbook YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index YoY	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) House Price Index MoM	Low	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) CB Consumer Confidence	Medium	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
15:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) Dallas Fed Services Index	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4.5 to 7 yrs	Low	USD
18:00	(United States) 2-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
21:30	(United States) API Crude Oil Stock Change	Medium	USD
23:45	(New Zealand) Imports	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Exports	Low	NZD
23:45	(New Zealand) Balance of Trade	Medium	NZD

Today's Scenario: - During early Tuesday trading in Asia, the USD/CHF pair is trading lower and has hit a seven-day low around 0.8870. The Swiss currency is benefiting from the broad weakness of the US Dollar, as bears in the options market maintain control.

The USD/CHF one-month risk reversal, which measures the spread between call and put options, is currently indicating the largest monthly loss since November 2022. This marks the second consecutive monthly decline, with the latest print at -0.435.

Buy Scenario: - Despite the USD/CHF piercing the 0.9000 level last week, buyers failed to crack this level and test the 20-day EMA, indicating a bearish bias. However, a falling wedge pattern, which sometimes acts as a reversal pattern, is forming after a preceding downtrend. This suggests that the USD/CHF could be poised for an upward correction before falling past the YTD low at 0.8859.

If the USD/CHF breaks above the falling-wedge top trendline, the pair could initially rally towards the measured objective at around the 100-day EMA at 0.9240. However, buyers need to reclaim key resistance levels, including the 0.9000 figure, followed by the April 10 high at 0.9120, before exposing the 0.9200 figure. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, a continuation past the YTD low of 0.8859 is expected, based on the RSI staying in bearish territory and the RoC of three periods indicating a fall of -1.04 in USD/CHF prices. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -