Published on May 24, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 24-05-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
00:00	(Japan) Reuters Tankan Index	Medium	JPY
01:00	(Ecuador) The Battle of Pichincha	None	USD
02:00	(Australia) Westpac Leading Index MoM	Low	AUD
03:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	Medium	NZD
04:00	(East Timor) Inflation Rate YoY	Low	USD
04:00	(East Timor) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	USD
04:00	(New Zealand) RBNZ Press Conference	Medium	NZD
06:00	(Finland) Export Prices YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Import Prices YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) PPI YoY	Low	EUR
06:00	(Finland) Unemployment Rate	Low	EUR
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Input MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate MoM	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY	High	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) PPI Core Output MoM	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index YoY	Low	GBP
07:00	(United Kingdom) Retail Price Index MoM	Low	GBP
08:00	(Euro Area) ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:10	(Australia) RBA Jacobs Speech	Medium	AUD
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Expectations	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Current Conditions	Low	EUR
09:00	(Germany) Ifo Business Climate	High	EUR
10:30	(Germany) 15-Year Bund Auction	Low	EUR
10:30	(United Kingdom) BoE Gov Bailey Speech	Medium	GBP
11:00	(United Kingdom) CBI Industrial Trends Orders	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Applications	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Refinance Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Mortgage Market Index	Low	USD
12:00	(United States) MBA Purchase Index	Low	USD
14:00	(Belgium) Business Confidence	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Production Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Crude Oil Imports Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Gasoline Stocks Change	Medium	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 17-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
16:30	(United States) 2-Year FRN Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(Canada) 10-Year Bond Auction	Low	CAD
17:10	(United States) Fed Waller Speech	Medium	USD
18:00	(United States) 5-Year Note Auction	Low	USD
18:45	(Euro Area) ECB President Lagarde Speech	Medium	EUR
19:00	(United States) FOMC Minutes	High	USD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CHF has managed to rise above the 0.9000 level and is now aiming to test the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9025. This bullish momentum is evident from the formation of a bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the daily chart. The current trading price for USD/CHF is 0.9015, having reached a daily low of 0.8975 earlier. The pair is currently trading 0.42% above its opening price.

Buy Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair currently shows a neutral to downward bias, unless it successfully surpasses the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9025, which would shift the bias to neutral upwards. It is worth noting that the pair has reached a new daily high, surpassing the previous high from May 2 at 0.8995, which opens the possibility for further upside momentum.

If the USD/CHF manages to break above the 50-day EMA, it will likely test the high from last week at 0.9063, and potentially rally towards the 0.9100 level. This would reinforce a bullish bias, with the next target being the 100-day EMA at 0.9137, followed by the daily high from April 3 at 0.9196. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator has turned bullish and has recently rebounded from the 50-midline, indicating that USD/CHF bulls are gaining momentum. However, the 3-day Rate of Change (RoC) indicator remains neutrally biased.

Therefore, it is likely that the upward trend in USD/CHF will continue. On the downside, the initial support for the pair would be at the 0.9000 level. If this support is broken, the pair may decline towards the 20-day EMA at 0.8968. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -