Daily Analysis For USD/CHF  23-05-2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 23-05-2023

USD/CHF Analysis
USD/CHF
Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF
Economic Events : -
GMTEventImpactCurrency
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMILowAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMIHighAUD
00:00(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMIHighAUD
01:00(Montenegro) Independence DayNoneEUR
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMIMediumJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Services PMIMediumJPY
01:30(Japan) Jibun Bank Composite PMILowJPY
07:00(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoMLowEUR
07:00(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoYLowEUR
07:00(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net BorrowingLowGBP
07:00(United Kingdom) Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex BanksLowGBP
08:00(Slovakia) Current AccountLowEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIMediumEUR
08:15(France) S&P Global Services PMIMediumEUR
08:15(Euro Area) ECB Guindos SpeechHighEUR
08:15(Euro Area) ECB Jochnick SpeechLowEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
08:30(Germany) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Current AccountLowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Composite PMILowEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Services PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighEUR
09:00(Euro Area) Current Account s.aLowEUR
09:30(Slovenia) Consumer ConfidenceLowEUR
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMIHighGBP
09:30(United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMILowGBP
10:00(Italy) Current AccountLowEUR
10:00(United Kingdom) 28-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt AuctionLowGBP
10:30(Germany) 2-Year Schatz AuctionLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) PPI YoYLowEUR
11:00(Latvia) PPI MoMLowEUR
11:25(Euro Area) ECB Enria SpeechLowEUR
13:00(United States) Building PermitsMediumUSD
13:00(United States) Building Permits MoMLowUSD
13:30(Canada) Raw Materials Prices YoYLowCAD
13:30(Canada) Raw Materials Prices MoMLowCAD
13:30(Canada) PPI YoYLowCAD
13:30(Canada) PPI MoMLowCAD
13:55(United States) Redbook YoYLowUSD
14:00(United States) Fed Logan SpeechMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Services PMIHighUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Composite PMIMediumUSD
14:45(United States) S&P Global Manufacturing PMIHighUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments IndexLowUSD
15:00(United States) New Home Sales MoMHighUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Services IndexLowUSD
15:00(United States) New Home SalesHighUSD
15:00(United States) Richmond Fed Manufacturing IndexLowUSD
15:30(Slovenia) Unemployment RateLowEUR
18:00(United States) 2-Year Note AuctionLowUSD
20:00(El Salvador) Balance of TradeLowUSD
21:30(United States) API Crude Oil Stock ChangeMediumUSD
23:45(New Zealand) Retail Sales YoYHighNZD
23:45(New Zealand) Retail Sales QoQHighNZD

Today's Scenario: - USD/CHF is retreating to 0.8975 as bears contend with a short-term support line during the early hours of Monday's European session. Despite downbeat first-quarter (Q1) industrial production growth in Switzerland, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair fails to find support due to the US Dollar's inability to rally on recent positive news regarding US default fears and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.
The Q1 industrial production data from Switzerland reveals the slowest growth since Q4 of 2021, with a year-on-year (YoY) figure of 3.4%, compared to the previous reading of 6.1%. This data supports the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) cautious approach to raising benchmark rates after providing substantial stimulus to borrowing costs.

Buy Scenario: - From a daily chart perspective, the USD/CHF has shifted from a neutral-to-downward bias to a neutral stance. In early May, the pair reached a new year-to-date low of 0.8820. Since then, USD/CHF has climbed 1.80%, showing a series of new highs and lows, but it has yet to turn the pair into a neutral-to-upward bias.
If the USD/CHF manages to reclaim the daily high from April 10 at 0.9120, it could shift the bias to neutral-upward and potentially open the door for a rally above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) located at 0.9136. Further upside potential lies above 0.9200, with the 200-day EMA at 0.9271 acting as the key resistance level to change the pair's bias to upward. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - On the other hand, for a bearish continuation, the USD/CHF would need to fall below the 20-day EMA at 0.8964. Breaking below this level would expose the low from May 22 at 0.8940 and potentially clear the path for the pair towards the low from June 9, 2021, at 0.8926, followed by the 0.8900 level. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -
SupportResistance
S1 0.8947-R1 0.9004
S2 0.8916-R2 0.9029
S3 0.8891-R3 0.9060

Discussion

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