Published on Mar 23, 2023

Daily Analysis For USD/CHF 23-03-2023

USD/CHF Analysis

Economic Events and Scenario for USD/CHF

Economic Events : -

GMT	Event	Impact	Currency
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production YoY	Low	EUR
07:00	(Lithuania) Industrial Production MoM	Low	EUR
08:00	(European Union) European Council Meeting	Medium	EUR
08:30	(Switzerland) SNB Interest Rate Decision	Medium	CHF
09:00	(Greece) Current Account	Low	EUR
09:30	(Slovenia) Consumer Confidence	Low	EUR
11:30	(Germany) Bundesbank Balz Speech	Low	EUR
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision	High	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) MPC Meeting Minutes	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Hike	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Unchanged	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United Kingdom) BoE MPC Vote Cut	Medium	GBP
12:00	(United States) Building Permits	Medium	USD
12:00	(United States) Building Permits MoM	Low	USD
12:00	(Germany) undesbank Wuermeling Speech	Low	EUR
12:30	(United States) Current Account	Medium	USD
12:30	(United States) Jobless Claims 4-week Average	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Continuing Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Initial Jobless Claims	High	USD
12:30	(United States) Chicago Fed National Activity Index	Medium	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales MoM	High	USD
14:00	(United States) New Home Sales	High	USD
14:30	(United States) EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change	Low	USD
15:00	(Euro Area) Consumer Confidence	Medium	EUR
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Composite Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United States) Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index	Low	USD
15:00	(United Kingdom) BoE L Mann Speech	Medium	GBP
15:00	(Euro Area) ECB Lane Speech	Low	EUR
15:30	(United States) 8-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
15:30	(United States) 4-Week Bill Auction	Low	USD
17:00	(United States) 10-Year TIPS Auction	Low	USD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Services PMI	High	AUD
22:00	(Australia) Judo Bank Composite PMI	Low	AUD
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate YoY	High	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Inflation Rate MoM	Low	JPY
23:30	(Japan) Core Inflation Rate YoY	Medium	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Foreign Bond Investment	Low	JPY
23:50	(Japan) Stock Investment by Foreigners	Low	JPY

Today's Scenario: - The USD/CHF pair has fallen below the key support level of 0.9160 during the Asian session. This move lower came after the US Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, indicated in his monetary policy statement that the central bank may be approaching its terminal rate. Despite having previously raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75-5.00%, Powell suggested that the Fed may not need to hike rates much further. This dovish guidance caused the Swiss franc to strengthen, leading to the decline in the USD/CHF pair.

Buy Scenario: - if USD/CHF manages to break above its immediate resistance level, it may face further challenges near the 50-day moving average and a two-week-old resistance line, around 0.9255. Beyond that, the 100-day moving average near 0.9335 could pose a significant barrier for the pair's upside momentum.

However, if the buyers are able to surpass the 100-DMA, the monthly high of around 0.9440 may serve as the final hurdle for the sellers. Till we do not advise to buy USD/CHF.

Sell Scenario: - Sellers of the USD/CHF pair are currently dominating the market, as the pair trades below a descending resistance line that has been in place for the past two weeks. The pair has also retreated from the 100-day moving average, with the bearish signals from the MACD and RSI (14) further strengthening the downside momentum.

As a result, the pair is likely to continue its decline towards a seven-week-old ascending support line, which currently lies near the 0.9080 level.

However, the RSI is approaching oversold conditions, which could make further weakness below the 0.9080 level less likely.

If the pair breaks below 0.9080, then the psychological level of 0.9000 and the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level of the pair's moves between November 10, 2022, and March 03, 2023, at around 0.8915, could act as the next major support levels. Till we do not advise to sell USD/CHF.

Support and Resistance Level: -